WOMEN S DIVISION I AUTOMATIC QUALIFIER AND AT-LARGE PROBABILITIES

Updated: date = 10 02 2021 time = 18:31 PST



Accuracy: 47/52 (90%) for last few years excluding 2021
> The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large).
Algorithm
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L [3] [4] [2] 1 Boston C Atlantic Coast 100.00 19.00 2 2 4 18 3 2 Duke Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 15 32 6 11 8 3 Florida American 100.00 85.00 8 5 23 18 3 4 JMU Colonial 100.00 33.00 16 17 37 12 5 5 Loyola Patriot League 100.00 45.00 10 10 61 11 3 6 Northwestern Big Ten 100.00 70.00 5 4 24 15 1 7 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 100.00 7.00 4 13 20 11 7 8 Stony Brook America East 100.00 76.00 6 6 25 16 3 9 Syracuse Atlantic Coast 100.00 19.00 3 3 1 17 4 10 Temple American 100.00 4.00 18 15 7 13 6 11 UNC Atlantic Coast 100.00 55.00 1 1 10 20 1 12 Virginia Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 23 37 5 9 9 13 Louisville Atlantic Coast 99.00 0.00 28 51 2 5 11 14 Hofstra Colonial 96.00 5.00 13 43 19 6 7 15 Drexel Colonial 92.00 49.00 7 12 28 13 3 16 Umass Atlantic 10 88.00 57.00 12 16 31 15 3 17 Stanford Pacific 12 86.00 41.00 9 11 52 11 1 18 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 78.00 78.00 17 8 72 12 2 19 Vanderbilt American 73.00 9.00 22 34 8 12 7 20 Denver Big East 70.00 65.00 11 7 33 16 2 21 Albany America East 65.00 18.00 26 31 9 11 7 22 Furman Southern 61.00 61.00 46 38 54 12 4 23 Robert Morris MAC 61.00 61.00 39 14 98 14 3 24 High Point Big South 60.00 60.00 38 65 18 10 8 25 Mt St Marys Northeast 50.00 49.00 21 30 21 13 3 26 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 45.00 27.00 14 9 16 13 2 27 Lehigh Patriot League 38.00 38.00 25 33 17 9 4 28 Siena Metro Atlantic 37.00 32.00 20 19 56 11 3 29 Central MI MAC 35.00 35.00 61 64 85 8 6 30 Campbell Big South 31.00 31.00 67 73 77 8 7 31 Wagner Northeast 31.00 31.00 35 53 101 10 5 32 Cst Carolina Southern 29.00 29.00 42 68 43 10 7 33 Maryland Big Ten 29.00 12.00 37 46 13 10 7 34 ASU Pacific 12 27.00 27.00 34 41 22 10 6 35 Monmouth NJ Metro Atlantic 24.00 24.00 54 47 62 8 5 36 Davidson Atlantic 10 21.00 21.00 32 35 70 11 4 37 Towson Colonial 21.00 3.00 29 45 42 9 9 38 Liberty Atlantic Sun 20.00 20.00 49 70 15 10 9 39 Uconn Big East 20.00 20.00 33 42 55 12 7 40 USC Pacific 12 19.00 19.00 40 55 67 9 7 41 Niagara Metro Atlantic 17.00 17.00 24 40 35 8 4 42 Rutgers Big Ten 17.00 8.00 47 62 11 7 9 43 St Josephs Atlantic 10 17.00 14.00 30 44 34 10 7 44 Bryant Northeast 15.00 15.00 60 66 94 7 6 45 Colorado Pacific 12 15.00 13.00 27 56 50 8 7 46 VA Tech Atlantic Coast 15.00 0.00 44 78 26 4 11 47 Georgetown Big East 11.00 11.00 59 82 63 6 10 48 Elon Colonial 10.00 10.00 19 18 48 9 2 49 JHU Big Ten 10.00 10.00 48 57 41 8 7 50 Mercer Southern 10.00 10.00 45 71 69 7 8 51 Army Patriot League 8.00 8.00 53 48 83 5 4 52 Richmond Atlantic 10 8.00 8.00 41 28 79 10 2 53 LIU Northeast 5.00 5.00 56 54 46 9 5 54 Winthrop Big South 5.00 5.00 81 90 84 7 8 55 Boston U Patriot League 4.00 4.00 68 61 82 4 6 56 Navy Patriot League 4.00 4.00 36 39 75 7 4 57 Radford Big South 4.00 4.00 80 112 51 6 12 58 UMBC America East 4.00 4.00 50 52 38 6 6 59 Villanova Big East 3.00 3.00 55 93 36 6 11 60 Akron MAC 2.00 2.00 96 85 95 7 8 61 Cincinnati American 2.00 2.00 52 76 14 7 10 62 Kennesaw St Atlantic Sun 2.00 2.00 79 102 78 4 10 63 Kent State MAC 2.00 2.00 98 108 99 5 10 64 Vermont America East 2.00 2.00 58 60 66 6 6 65 Holy Cross Patriot League 1.00 1.00 95 50 103 2 4 66 Marquette Big East 1.00 1.00 69 80 74 6 8 67 American Patriot League 0.00 0.00 83 84 71 1 7 68 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 86 63 86 3 5 69 Bucknell Patriot League 0.00 0.00 76 67 88 3 6 70 Butler Big East 0.00 0.00 99 110 64 1 11 71 California Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 94 119 29 2 16 72 Canisius Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 63 86 58 2 8 73 Central CT Northeast 0.00 0.00 104 117 87 0 13 74 Colgate Patriot League 0.00 0.00 70 59 105 5 5 75 Delaware Colonial 0.00 0.00 100 69 91 1 5 76 Delaware St Southern 0.00 0.00 111 107 110 1 9 77 Detroit Mercy MAC 0.00 0.00 102 98 97 2 8 78 Duquesne Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 62 49 80 4 5 79 E Carolina American 0.00 0.00 57 106 12 4 12 80 Fresno State MPSF 0.00 0.00 93 114 40 2 12 81 GardWebb Big South 0.00 0.00 97 101 109 4 9 82 GMU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 90 118 93 1 14 83 GWU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 77 74 89 5 7 84 Hartford America East 0.00 0.00 109 104 102 0 9 85 Iona Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 105 111 76 0 11 86 La Salle Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 71 83 53 5 9 87 Lafayette Patriot League 0.00 0.00 108 79 96 0 6 88 Longwood Big South 0.00 0.00 106 115 108 3 12 89 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 85 96 57 3 9 90 Marist Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 43 58 81 3 5 91 Merrimack Northeast 0.00 0.00 103 113 90 2 11 92 Michigan Big Ten 0.00 0.00 87 99 60 3 9 93 ODU American 0.00 0.00 91 116 27 3 14 94 Oregon Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 82 92 44 3 8 95 OSU Big Ten 0.00 0.00 72 87 59 4 9 96 Presbyterian Big South 0.00 0.00 110 109 111 4 10 97 PSU Big Ten 0.00 0.00 74 88 45 4 9 98 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 64 72 47 5 7 99 Sacred Heart Northeast 0.00 0.00 78 77 104 6 7 100 SDSU MPSF 0.00 0.00 73 100 39 5 9 101 St Bonny Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 89 105 92 2 10 102 St Francis Northeast 0.00 0.00 84 95 65 4 8 103 Stetson Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 75 89 68 1 8 104 UC Davis MPSF 0.00 0.00 51 36 49 12 4 105 Umass-L America East 0.00 0.00 88 81 100 4 8 106 UNH America East 0.00 0.00 92 75 73 4 7 107 VCU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 65 97 32 7 9 108 W&M Colonial 0.00 0.00 66 94 30 3 9 109 Wofford Southern 0.00 0.00 107 103 106 2 9 110 Youngstown St MAC 0.00 0.00 101 91 107 2 7