WOMEN S DIVISION I AUTOMATIC QUALIFIER AND AT-LARGE PROBABILITIES

Updated: date = 06 01 2022 time = 06:56 PST



Accuracy: 47/52 (90%) for last few years excluding 2021
> The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large).
Algorithm
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L [3] [4] [2] 1 Akron MAC 0.00 0.00 116 116 114 2 15 2 Albany America East 0.00 0.00 41 67 36 8 9 3 American Patriot League 0.00 0.00 79 71 95 9 9 4 Army Patriot League 0.00 0.00 35 32 39 12 6 5 Arizona State Pac-12 0.00 0.00 28 38 19 11 8 6 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 65 69 66 7 9 7 Boston College Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 2 3 1 19 4 8 Boston University Patriot League 0.00 0.00 99 110 46 2 15 9 Brown Ivy League 0.00 0.00 59 54 62 7 8 10 Bryant Northeast 0.00 0.00 64 36 108 12 5 11 Bucknell Patriot League 0.00 0.00 86 82 85 6 10 12 Butler Big East 0.00 0.00 91 76 103 7 9 13 California Pac-12 0.00 0.00 93 117 54 2 16 14 Campbell Big South 0.00 0.00 75 57 106 10 7 15 Canisius Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 49 46 93 10 6 16 Central Connecticut Northeast 0.00 0.00 111 103 105 2 12 17 Central Michigan MAC 0.00 0.00 71 50 100 12 8 18 Cincinnati American 0.00 0.00 66 78 76 7 10 19 Colgate Patriot League 0.00 0.00 82 96 69 6 12 20 Colorado Pac-12 0.00 0.00 43 41 49 11 6 21 Columbia Ivy League 0.00 0.00 98 105 90 2 13 22 Cornell Ivy League 0.00 0.00 54 55 60 8 8 23 Coastal Carolina Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 84 86 67 6 11 24 Dartmouth Ivy League 0.00 0.00 70 85 33 3 12 25 Davidson Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 38 28 56 13 5 26 Delaware Colonial 0.00 0.00 67 91 48 5 12 27 Delaware State Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 117 108 117 1 13 28 Denver Big East 0.00 0.00 10 10 18 18 3 29 Detroit Mercy MAC 0.00 0.00 114 107 109 2 13 30 Drexel Colonial 0.00 0.00 37 39 40 12 8 31 Duke Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 13 9 23 16 4 32 Duquesne Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 76 84 82 7 10 33 East Carolina American 0.00 0.00 58 51 45 9 9 34 Elon Colonial 0.00 0.00 77 87 75 5 11 35 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 33 40 43 13 7 36 Florida American 0.00 0.00 5 8 5 17 5 37 Furman Big South 0.00 0.00 62 59 57 8 8 38 Gardner Webb Big South 0.00 0.00 87 72 94 10 9 39 Georgetown Big East 0.00 0.00 40 43 21 9 9 40 George Mason Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 102 111 68 3 14 41 George Washington Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 90 104 72 5 13 42 Harvard Ivy League 0.00 0.00 53 52 47 7 8 43 High Point Big South 0.00 0.00 46 60 26 10 9 44 Hofstra Colonial 0.00 0.00 52 58 51 9 8 45 Holy Cross Patriot League 0.00 0.00 85 83 84 6 10 46 Howard Northeast 0.00 0.00 118 119 118 1 16 47 Iona Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 78 61 107 9 7 48 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 15 15 32 14 5 49 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 0.00 0.00 16 30 13 10 9 50 James Madison Colonial 0.00 0.00 12 13 12 14 5 51 Kennesaw State Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 73 44 92 11 7 52 Kent State MAC 0.00 0.00 107 98 115 6 12 53 La Salle Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 94 99 81 5 12 54 Lafayette Patriot League 0.00 0.00 103 106 87 2 13 55 Lehigh Patriot League 0.00 0.00 57 62 52 9 9 56 Liberty Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 44 42 41 11 8 57 LIU Northeast 0.00 0.00 104 100 97 6 12 58 Longwood Big South 0.00 0.00 108 94 116 6 11 59 Louisville Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 42 64 24 7 11 60 Loyola Patriot League 0.00 0.00 8 4 14 20 2 61 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 60 63 71 11 8 62 Marist Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 96 109 79 3 13 63 Marquette WBig East 0.00 0.00 63 73 70 8 10 64 Maryland Big Ten 0.00 0.00 3 2 7 19 2 65 Mercer Big South 0.00 0.00 34 16 37 14 5 66 Merrimack Northeast 0.00 0.00 109 101 113 4 12 67 Michigan Big Ten 0.00 0.00 18 20 22 11 7 68 Monmouth (NJ) Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 48 47 59 12 7 69 Mount St Marys Northeast 0.00 0.00 45 25 65 15 5 70 Navy Patriot League 0.00 0.00 29 21 34 15 5 71 Niagara Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 56 75 78 9 9 72 Northwestern Big Ten 0.00 0.00 4 5 3 16 5 73 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 20 33 8 9 10 74 Old Dominion American 0.00 0.00 101 97 88 5 12 75 Oregon Pac-12 0.00 0.00 89 112 64 4 14 76 Ohio State Big Ten 0.00 0.00 23 29 31 9 7 77 Penn Ivy League 0.00 0.00 47 53 27 6 9 78 Pittsburgh Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 50 48 28 9 10 79 Presbyterian Big South 0.00 0.00 115 118 110 2 15 80 Princeton Ivy League 0.00 0.00 11 12 11 15 4 81 Penn State Big Ten 0.00 0.00 25 45 16 6 9 82 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 80 88 91 6 10 83 Radford Big South 0.00 0.00 112 114 104 2 14 84 Richmond Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 31 18 58 14 4 85 Robert Morris MAC 0.00 0.00 81 77 101 9 9 86 Rutgers Big Ten 0.00 0.00 9 11 10 16 5 87 Sacred Heart Northeast 0.00 0.00 100 89 96 6 10 88 San Diego State MPSF 0.00 0.00 55 49 50 7 8 89 Siena Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 51 65 74 10 8 90 St Bonaventure Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 113 115 102 1 14 91 St Francis Northeast 1 0.00 0.00 110 95 111 5 11 92 St Josephs Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 30 34 17 14 7 93 Stanford Pac-12 0.00 0.00 27 37 25 12 7 94 Stetson Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 95 90 80 4 11 95 Stony Brook America East 0.00 0.00 7 6 9 16 3 96 Syracuse Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 6 7 6 15 6 97 Temple American 0.00 0.00 22 26 29 11 6 98 Towson Colonial 0.00 0.00 39 56 53 9 8 99 UC Davis MPSF 0.00 0.00 72 70 77 5 8 100 UConn Big East 0.00 0.00 17 19 30 13 5 101 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 19 14 15 16 4 102 Massachusetts-Lowell America East 0.00 0.00 92 102 61 4 13 103 UMBC America East 0.00 0.00 61 74 83 8 9 104 North Carolina Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 1 1 2 22 0 105 New Hampshire America East 0.00 0.00 74 66 86 7 8 106 USC Pac-12 0.00 0.00 21 23 42 13 5 107 Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 36 35 20 9 9 108 Vanderbilt American 0.00 0.00 26 31 35 11 7 109 VCU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 88 80 89 7 10 110 Vermont America East 0.00 0.00 32 22 55 14 5 111 Villanova Big East 0.00 0.00 69 79 44 5 11 112 Virginia Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 14 27 4 10 10 113 William & Mary Colonial 0.00 0.00 83 92 73 4 12 114 Wagner Northeast 0.00 0.00 68 81 63 8 10 115 Winthrop Big South 0.00 0.00 106 113 99 4 14 116 Wofford Big South 0.00 0.00 105 93 98 5 11 117 Yale Ivy League 0.00 0.00 24 24 38 11 6 118 Youngstown State MAC 0.00 0.00 97 68 112 10 8