MEN S DIVISION I AUTOMATIC QUALIFIER AND AT-LARGE PROBABILITIES

Updated: date = 06 01 2022 time = 06:57 PST



Accuracy: 53/56 (99%) for last 7 years excluding 2021            (8/8)
The sum of a teams rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Mens Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at-large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probabilility goes to 0.00.

Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. Algorithm
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L [3] [4] [2] 1 Maryland B1G 10.00 8.10 1 1 2 18 0 2 Notre Dame ACC 10.00 0.00 10 9 20 8 4 3 Cornell Ivy 10.00 3.00 6 3 3 14 5 4 Princeton Ivy 10.00 1.70 2 7 1 10 6 5 Virginia ACC 10.00 0.00 8 8 9 12 4 6 Penn Ivy 10.00 0.20 3 5 6 11 5 7 Georgetown Big East 10.00 6.50 4 4 16 15 2 8 Harvard Ivy 9.50 0.40 15 10 18 8 5 9 Rutgers B1G 10.00 1.10 7 6 4 15 4 10 Yale Ivy 10.00 2.70 5 2 7 13 4 11 Army Patriot 2.70 2.70 17 15 29 12 4 12 Delaware CAA 4.00 4.00 18 21 26 13 6 13 OSU B1G 6.80 0.60 14 16 8 10 6 14 Air Force ASUN 1.80 1.80 42 42 48 8 7 15 Albany America East 0.30 0.30 49 50 30 5 10 16 Bellarmine ASUN 0.60 0.60 63 71 45 4 13 17 Binghamton America East 0.40 0.40 60 55 61 5 9 18 Brown Ivy 10.00 2.00 11 11 11 10 6 19 Bryant NEC 1.80 1.80 36 39 50 8 7 20 BU Patriot 3.80 3.80 12 13 23 12 5 21 Bucknell Patriot 0.00 0.00 39 33 53 9 6 22 Canisius MAAC 0.00 0.00 67 70 57 2 12 23 Cleveland State ASUN 0.00 0.00 66 64 65 3 10 24 Colgate Patriot 0.00 0.00 46 53 34 4 9 25 Dartmouth Ivy 0.00 0.00 35 37 25 4 9 26 Denver Big East 1.60 1.60 21 22 15 9 6 27 Detroit Mercy ASUN 0.00 0.00 62 56 66 2 9 28 Drexel CAA 0.50 0.50 40 51 47 6 8 29 Duke ACC 0.00 0.00 9 18 17 11 6 30 Fairfield CAA 0.10 0.10 52 43 62 7 7 31 Hampton SoCon 0.00 0.00 73 66 73 0 10 32 High Point SoCon 0.90 0.90 34 34 19 7 8 33 Hobart NEC 2.80 2.80 37 35 49 7 6 34 Hofstra CAA 0.50 0.50 50 54 51 6 9 35 Holy Cross Patriot 0.00 0.00 70 72 63 1 13 36 Jacksonville SoCon 4.90 4.90 25 12 41 14 3 37 JHU B1G 0.20 0.20 22 30 5 7 9 38 Lafayette Patriot 0.00 0.00 59 61 39 4 11 39 Lehigh Patriot 0.80 0.80 28 29 22 8 7 40 LIU NEC 1.50 1.50 43 49 44 7 8 41 Loyola Patriot 2.30 2.30 23 27 10 8 8 42 Manhattan MAAC 1.60 1.60 48 44 59 8 7 43 Marist MAAC 2.40 2.40 44 41 36 7 8 44 Marquette Big East 0.60 0.60 51 58 27 4 11 45 Mercer SoCon 0.00 0.00 55 62 38 5 10 46 Merrimack NEC 0.00 0.00 54 38 70 6 6 47 Michigan B1G 0.00 0.00 45 31 31 7 8 48 Monmouth MAAC 0.00 0.00 56 45 67 5 7 49 Mt St Marys NEC 0.00 0.00 58 59 46 5 10 50 Navy Patriot 0.40 0.40 32 36 52 9 6 51 NJIT America East 0.00 0.00 71 73 56 0 13 52 Providence Big East 0.00 0.00 47 46 43 6 8 53 PSU B1G 0.00 0.00 33 52 13 3 11 54 Quinnipiac MAAC 0.00 0.00 64 63 54 2 11 55 Richmond SoCon 4.20 4.20 13 17 14 11 5 56 Robert Morris ASUN 2.10 2.10 29 32 33 10 6 57 Sacred Heart NEC 0.00 0.00 69 65 72 3 10 58 Siena MAAC 1.90 1.90 61 57 64 6 9 59 St Bonaventure MAAC 4.10 4.10 41 23 68 11 4 60 St Johns Big East 0.00 0.00 57 68 35 2 12 61 St Josephs NEC 3.90 3.90 16 14 37 14 4 62 Stony Brook America East 2.40 2.40 38 25 55 9 5 63 Syracuse ACC 0.00 0.00 31 40 12 4 10 64 Towson CAA 3.50 3.50 27 47 28 7 9 65 UMass CAA 1.40 1.40 26 26 32 8 6 66 UMassLowell America East 0.00 0.00 72 69 71 2 11 67 UMBC America East 1.90 1.90 53 48 58 6 7 68 UNC ACC 0.00 0.00 19 19 21 8 6 69 Utah ASUN 5.50 5.50 24 24 40 10 4 70 Vermont America East 5.00 5.00 30 28 42 12 7 71 Villanova Big East 1.30 1.30 20 20 24 9 6 72 VMI SoCon 0.00 0.00 68 67 60 4 11 73 Wagner NEC 0.00 0.00 65 60 69 3 9