MEN S DIVISION I AUTOMATIC QUALIFIER AND AT-LARGE PROBABILITIES

Updated: date = 10 15 2021 time = 16:22 PST



Accuracy: 53/56 (99%) for last 7 years excluding 2021            (8/8)
The sum of a teams rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Mens Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at-large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probabilility goes to 0.00.

Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. Algorithm
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L [3] [4] [2] 1 UNC ACC 100.00 0.00 1 3 2 13 3 2 Duke ACC 100.00 0.00 3 2 3 14 3 3 Maryland B1G 100.00 42.00 5 4 12 15 1 4 Rutgers B1G 100.00 30.00 15 15 26 9 4 5 Notre Dame ACC 100.00 0.00 4 5 5 8 4 6 Virginia ACC 100.00 0.00 2 1 1 14 4 7 Denver Big East 100.00 42.00 13 9 8 12 5 8 Georgetown Big East 100.00 39.00 7 6 7 13 3 9 Syracuse ACC 100.00 0.00 6 8 4 7 6 10 Army Patriot 34.00 32.00 9 12 13 7 4 11 High Point SoCon 48.00 28.00 17 24 9 8 6 12 Air Force SoCon 15.00 15.00 41 58 15 4 9 13 Albany America East 21.00 21.00 26 36 21 8 5 14 Bellarmine SoCon 0.00 0.00 59 67 50 5 10 15 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 37 39 60 5 4 16 Boston U Patriot 5.00 5.00 55 37 64 6 5 17 Bryant NEC 39.00 30.00 14 31 14 9 4 18 Bucknell Patriot 0.00 0.00 52 57 52 2 6 19 Canisius MAAC 5.00 5.00 39 45 58 5 5 20 Cleveland St Independent 0.00 0.00 66 62 67 3 7 21 Colgate Patriot 0.00 0.00 47 63 44 3 7 22 Delaware CAA 35.00 35.00 19 23 32 10 3 23 Detroit Mercy MAAC 15.00 15.00 38 40 46 3 4 24 Drexel CAA 93.00 30.00 12 14 20 10 3 25 Fairfield CAA 0.00 0.00 61 68 59 2 9 26 Hartford America East 0.00 0.00 53 53 56 2 5 27 Hobart NEC 17.00 17.00 31 28 57 6 3 28 Hofstra CAA 13.00 13.00 36 43 33 8 6 29 Holy Cross Patriot 0.00 0.00 62 38 65 2 4 30 Jacksonville SoCon 8.00 8.00 35 46 30 7 7 31 JHU B1G 0.00 0.00 40 55 16 4 9 32 Lafayette Patriot 0.00 0.00 65 71 48 0 11 33 Lehigh Patriot 33.00 33.00 23 7 39 10 2 34 LIU NEC 11.00 11.00 51 47 63 6 5 35 Loyola Patriot 78.00 19.00 10 11 6 10 6 36 Manhattan MAAC 26.00 26.00 27 41 29 5 5 37 Marquette Big East 1.00 1.00 44 54 35 4 8 38 Mercer SoCon 0.00 0.00 54 60 61 5 8 39 Merrimack NEC 0.00 0.00 42 44 62 5 5 40 Michigan B1G 0.00 0.00 48 59 28 3 9 41 Monmouth MAAC 32.00 32.00 18 26 31 8 3 42 Mt St Marys NEC 0.00 0.00 49 64 22 4 9 43 Navy Patriot 11.00 11.00 20 10 37 6 3 44 NJIT NEC 0.00 0.00 56 72 36 1 10 45 OSU B1G 14.00 14.00 45 50 47 4 7 46 Providence Big East 0.00 0.00 46 61 25 4 9 47 PSU B1G 14.00 14.00 43 51 43 4 7 48 Quinnipiac MAAC 22.00 22.00 30 35 40 4 3 49 Richmond SoCon 49.00 49.00 28 32 17 7 6 50 Rob Morris NEC 0.00 0.00 29 29 24 7 6 51 Sacred Heart NEC 0.00 0.00 64 74 42 1 12 52 Siena MAAC 0.00 0.00 63 66 49 0 8 53 St Bonny MAAC 0.00 0.00 34 49 45 5 5 54 St Johns Big East 0.00 0.00 57 69 38 1 10 55 St Josephs NEC 42.00 42.00 21 27 18 9 4 56 Stony Brook America East 22.00 22.00 33 42 23 8 6 57 Towson CAA 0.00 0.00 22 48 10 6 8 58 UMass CAA 22.00 22.00 32 52 27 4 6 59 UMassLowell America East 0.00 0.00 58 65 51 1 8 60 UMBC America East 15.00 15.00 24 33 41 8 3 61 Utah Independent 0.00 0.00 50 56 54 4 7 62 Vermont America East 42.00 42.00 16 34 11 9 5 63 Villanova Big East 18.00 18.00 25 30 19 7 5 64 VMI SoCon 0.00 0.00 67 73 66 1 10 65 Wagner NEC 0.00 0.00 60 70 55 1 9