PROBABILITIES

The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance). However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances. At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection. Algorithm
Rank Team Name Conference AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L Rating Ranking 1 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 100.00 0.90 1 5 1 2 Gettysburg Centennial 100.00 0.84 2 4 1 3 Middlebury NESCAC 100.00 0.75 3 3 0 4 College of New Jer NJAC 100.00 0.77 4 4 0 6 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 100.00 1.00 5 3 0 7 York Capital 100.00 0.88 6 4 1 8 Mount Union Ohio 100.00 0.88 7 3 0 9 Catholic (DC) Landmark 100.00 0.96 8 3 0 10 William Smith Liberty Leag 100.00 0.95 9 3 2 11 Rhodes SAA 100.00 0.75 10 6 3 12 Brockport SUNYAC 100.00 0.64 11 2 1 14 Denison North Coast 100.00 0.79 12 1 3 15 Westfield State MASCAC 100.00 0.84 13 4 1 16 Albion MIAA 100.00 0.78 14 4 2 17 Endicott Comm. Coast 100.00 0.76 15 4 0 18 Hamline Midwest 100.00 0.83 16 3 0 22 George Fox Northwest 100.00 0.90 17 2 1 23 Illinois Wesleyan CCIW 100.00 0.83 18 2 5 24 Lebanon Valley Commonwealth 100.00 0.71 19 0 3 29 Merchant Marine Skyline 100.00 0.63 20 1 1 33 Meredith USA South At 100.00 0.87 21 3 4 34 Canton Independent 100.00 0.61 22 0 3 41 Misericordia Freedom 100.00 0.78 23 1 1 42 Morrisville NEAC 100.00 0.70 24 2 2 44 Springfield NEWMAC 100.00 0.64 25 2 3 45 Transylvania Heartland 100.00 0.77 26 3 2 47 Westminster (PA) President's 100.00 0.55 27 1 6 48 Johnson & Wales Great Northe 100.00 0.67 28 1 4 54 New England Colleg North Atlant 100.00 0.73 29 2 1 55 Notre Dame (MD) CSAC 100.00 0.67 30 1 2 64 Plymouth State Little East 100.00 0.69 31 1 5 POOL 1 5 Franklin & Marshal Centennial 0.00 0.85 1 4 0 13 Tufts NESCAC 0.00 0.81 2 3 0 20 Shenandoah Old Dominion 0.00 0.86 3 7 0 21 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 0.00 0.91 4 5 2 25 Vassar Liberty Leag 0.00 0.87 5 4 0 26 Amherst NESCAC 0.00 0.80 6 3 1 27 Chicago CCIW 0.00 0.86 7 3 0 28 Marymount Capital 0.00 0.78 8 7 0 30 Wheaton NEWMAC 0.00 0.82 9 4 1 31 Bowdoin NESCAC 0.00 0.85 10 2 1 32 Mary Washington Capital 0.00 0.82 11 5 2 35 Ithaca Liberty Leag 0.00 0.87 12 5 0 36 Salisbury Capital 0.00 0.78 13 3 2 38 Connecticut Colleg NESCAC 0.00 0.76 14 3 1 39 Drew Landmark 0.00 0.83 15 3 1 40 Geneseo SUNYAC 0.00 0.87 16 4 1 43 North Central CCIW 0.00 0.90 17 5 0 46 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 0.00 0.96 18 4 0 49 Rensselaer Liberty Leag 0.00 0.81 19 3 0 50 Colby NESCAC 0.00 0.78 20 4 1 51 Haverford Centennial 0.00 0.88 21 3 2 52 Kenyon North Coast 0.00 0.75 22 4 2 53 Lynchburg Old Dominion 0.00 0.79 23 3 2 56 Aurora Midwest 0.00 0.90 24 3 1 57 Calvin MIAA 0.00 0.84 25 2 0 58 Concordia-Chicago Midwest 0.00 0.73 26 5 0 59 Guilford Old Dominion 0.00 0.71 27 6 1 60 Heidelberg Ohio 0.00 0.69 28 4 0 61 John Carroll Ohio 0.00 0.87 29 4 2 62 Marywood CSAC 0.00 0.79 30 4 1 63 Messiah Commonwealth 0.00 0.81 31 4 2 65 Simmons Great Northe 0.00 0.82 32 5 0 66 Stockton NJAC 0.00 0.75 33 4 0 67 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 0.00 0.70 34 2 1 68 Cabrini CSAC 0.00 0.80 35 2 1 69 Coast Guard NEWMAC 0.00 0.80 36 3 2 70 Cornell (IA) Midwest 0.00 0.78 37 2 2 71 DePauw North Coast 0.00 0.82 38 4 2 72 Dickinson Centennial 0.00 0.82 39 3 3 73 Earlham Heartland 0.00 0.71 40 4 1 74 Kalamazoo MIAA 0.00 0.81 41 3 2 75 Kean NJAC 0.00 0.75 42 3 1 76 Loras Midwest 0.00 0.89 43 3 1 77 Manhattanville Freedom 0.00 0.83 44 4 1 78 MCLA MASCAC 0.00 0.45 45 0 0 79 Montclair State NJAC 0.00 0.62 46 2 2 80 Oberlin North Coast 0.00 0.82 47 4 2 82 Oneonta SUNYAC 0.00 0.77 48 3 2 83 Otterbein Ohio 0.00 0.77 49 4 2 84 Regis (MA) NECC 0.00 0.74 50 3 0 85 RIT Liberty Leag 0.00 0.82 51 2 1 86 Roanoke Old Dominion 0.00 0.76 52 3 2 87 Rochester Liberty Leag 0.00 0.76 53 2 1 88 Saint Vincent President's 0.00 0.89 54 3 0 89 Stevens Empire Eight 0.00 0.76 55 3 2 90 Utica Empire Eight 0.00 0.69 56 4 0 91 Adrian MIAA 0.00 0.79 57 2 2 92 Albertus Magnus Great Northe 0.00 0.61 58 1 1 93 Albright Commonwealth 0.00 0.79 59 4 3 94 Alfred Empire Eight 0.00 0.00 60 0 2 95 Allegheny North Coast 0.00 0.73 61 3 1 96 Alma MIAA 0.00 0.65 62 2 2 97 Alvernia Commonwealth 0.00 0.00 63 2 3 98 Anderson Heartland 0.00 0.00 64 0 3 99 Anna Maria Great Northe 0.00 0.81 65 2 1 100 Arcadia Commonwealth 0.00 0.79 66 3 3 101 Augsburg Midwest 0.00 0.00 67 1 2 102 Augustana CCIW 0.00 0.00 68 2 3 103 Averett USA South At 0.00 0.00 69 1 5 104 Babson NEWMAC 0.00 0.74 70 2 3 105 Baldwin Wallace Ohio 0.00 0.00 71 2 4 106 Bard Liberty Leag 0.00 0.75 72 3 0 107 Bates NESCAC 0.00 0.69 73 2 3 108 Bay Path NECC 0.00 0.00 74 0 2 109 Becker NECC 0.00 0.58 75 0 0 110 Beloit Midwest 0.00 0.74 76 3 2 111 Benedictine Midwest 0.00 0.58 77 3 3 112 Berry SAA 0.00 0.00 78 2 8 113 Bethany President's 0.00 0.00 79 0 3 114 Birmingham-Souther SAA 0.00 0.81 80 4 4 115 Brevard USA South At 0.00 0.00 81 0 4 116 Bridgewater Old Dominion 0.00 0.64 82 3 3 117 Bridgewater State MASCAC 0.00 0.73 83 2 3 118 Bryn Athyn NEAC 0.00 0.00 84 0 1 119 Bryn Mawr Centennial 0.00 0.90 85 6 0 120 Buffalo State SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 86 1 2 122 Capital Ohio 0.00 0.75 87 3 2 123 Carroll CCIW 0.00 0.75 88 4 2 124 Carthage CCIW 0.00 0.80 89 4 3 125 Castleton North Atlant 0.00 0.00 90 1 4 126 Cazenovia NEAC 0.00 0.00 91 0 1 127 Cedar Crest CSAC 0.00 0.79 92 1 1 128 Centenary CSAC 0.00 0.00 93 0 3 129 Centre SAA 0.00 0.00 94 3 5 131 Chatham President's 0.00 0.69 95 2 1 132 Christopher Newpor Capital 0.00 0.74 96 3 4 133 Clark NEWMAC 0.00 0.59 97 3 2 134 Clarkson Liberty Leag 0.00 0.80 98 2 2 135 Colby-Sawyer North Atlant 0.00 0.83 99 2 2 137 Concordia-Wisconsi Midwest 0.00 0.00 100 0 3 138 Cortland SUNYAC 0.00 0.85 101 1 2 139 Curry Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 102 1 3 141 Dean NECC 0.00 0.00 103 0 1 142 Delaware Valley Freedom 0.00 0.00 104 1 3 143 DeSales Freedom 0.00 0.67 105 3 3 145 Eastern Freedom 0.00 0.66 106 2 1 146 Eastern Connecticu Little East 0.00 0.82 107 2 2 147 Eastern Mennonite Old Dominion 0.00 0.66 108 1 1 148 Elizabethtown Landmark 0.00 0.73 109 4 2 149 Elmhurst CCIW 0.00 0.00 110 0 4 150 Elmira Empire Eight 0.00 0.00 111 1 4 151 Elms NECC 0.00 0.00 112 0 2 152 Emerson NEWMAC 0.00 0.79 113 2 1 153 Emmanuel Great Northe 0.00 0.75 114 1 0 154 Farmingdale State Skyline 0.00 0.00 115 2 3 155 FDU-Florham Freedom 0.00 0.00 116 2 3 156 Ferrum Old Dominion 0.00 0.72 117 4 0 157 Fitchburg State MASCAC 0.00 0.74 118 3 1 158 Framingham State MASCAC 0.00 0.67 119 2 2 160 Franklin Heartland 0.00 0.00 120 0 3 161 Fredonia SUNYAC 0.00 0.72 121 2 1 162 Gordon Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 122 0 5 163 Goucher Landmark 0.00 0.72 123 4 2 164 Greensboro USA South At 0.00 0.60 124 3 1 165 Gwynedd-Mercy CSAC 0.00 0.76 125 3 2 166 Hamilton NESCAC 0.00 0.00 126 0 2 167 Hanover Heartland 0.00 0.69 127 3 3 168 Hartwick Empire Eight 0.00 0.73 128 1 2 169 Hendrix SAA 0.00 0.64 129 3 3 170 Hilbert NEAC 0.00 0.00 130 0 2 171 Hiram North Coast 0.00 0.00 131 1 6 173 Hood Commonwealth 0.00 0.00 132 3 4 174 Hope MIAA 0.00 0.58 133 2 2 175 Houghton Empire Eight 0.00 0.71 134 3 2 176 Huntingdon USA South At 0.00 0.00 135 3 4 177 Husson North Atlant 0.00 0.00 136 0 3 178 Illinois Tech Midwest 0.00 0.00 137 0 2 179 Immaculata CSAC 0.00 0.00 138 1 4 180 Johnson & Wales (C SCAC 0.00 0.00 139 1 3 181 Juniata Landmark 0.00 0.80 140 4 2 182 Keene State Little East 0.00 0.75 141 1 2 183 Keuka NEAC 0.00 0.85 142 1 0 184 Keystone CSAC 0.00 0.00 143 0 3 185 King's Freedom 0.00 0.00 144 1 4 186 Lancaster Bible NEAC 0.00 0.00 145 0 4 187 Lasell Great Northe 0.00 0.76 146 2 0 188 Linfield Northwest 0.00 0.70 147 2 1 189 Lycoming Commonwealth 0.00 0.00 148 1 3 190 Lyndon State North Atlant 0.00 0.78 149 0 0 191 Maine Maritime North Atlant 0.00 0.00 150 0 2 192 Maine-Farmington North Atlant 0.00 0.67 151 1 1 193 Marian (WI) Midwest 0.00 0.00 152 0 3 194 Marietta Ohio 0.00 0.67 153 5 1 195 Maritime Skyline 0.00 0.79 154 4 1 196 Mass. Maritime MASCAC 0.00 0.75 155 3 1 197 Mass.-Dartmouth Little East 0.00 0.65 156 2 2 198 McDaniel Centennial 0.00 0.00 157 1 3 199 Medaille NEAC 0.00 0.83 158 2 2 200 Methodist USA South At 0.00 0.00 159 2 3 201 MIT NEWMAC 0.00 0.77 160 2 3 202 Mitchell NECC 0.00 0.00 161 0 2 203 Monmouth (IL) Midwest 0.00 0.00 162 1 2 204 Moravian Landmark 0.00 0.74 163 4 2 205 Mount Aloysius 0.00 0.00 164 1 4 206 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 0.00 0.81 165 2 2 207 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 0.00 0.00 166 1 3 208 Mount Saint Vincen Skyline 0.00 0.00 167 1 2 209 Mount St. Joseph Heartland 0.00 0.75 168 1 0 210 Muhlenberg Centennial 0.00 0.66 169 0 1 211 Muskingum Ohio 0.00 0.68 170 3 3 212 Nazareth Empire Eight 0.00 0.00 171 2 4 213 Neumann CSAC 0.00 0.00 172 0 4 214 New Paltz SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 173 2 3 215 Nichols Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 174 0 2 216 No. Carolina Wesle USA South At 0.00 0.00 175 1 6 218 Norwich Great Northe 0.00 0.00 176 0 4 219 Oglethorpe SAA 0.00 0.65 177 4 2 220 Ohio Northern Ohio 0.00 0.84 178 3 2 221 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 0.00 0.00 179 2 3 222 Old Westbury Skyline 0.00 0.00 180 0 0 223 Olivet MIAA 0.00 0.00 181 0 0 224 Oswego SUNYAC 0.00 0.74 182 2 2 225 Pacific (OR) Northwest 0.00 0.00 183 1 3 226 Penn State-Abingto NEAC 0.00 0.00 184 0 2 227 Pfeiffer USA South At 0.00 0.66 185 2 2 228 Piedmont USA South At 0.00 0.68 186 3 3 229 Plattsburgh State SUNYAC 0.00 0.72 187 4 0 230 Potsdam SUNYAC 0.00 0.68 188 3 2 231 Puget Sound Northwest 0.00 0.68 189 2 1 232 Purchase Skyline 0.00 0.65 190 1 0 233 Ramapo NJAC 0.00 0.72 191 2 2 234 Randolph Old Dominion 0.00 0.00 192 1 3 235 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 0.00 0.85 193 4 3 237 Rhode Island Colle Little East 0.00 0.00 194 0 3 238 Rivier Great Northe 0.00 0.00 195 0 2 239 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 0.00 0.73 196 2 3 240 Rosemont CSAC 0.00 0.00 197 0 2 241 Rowan NJAC 0.00 0.00 198 2 3 242 Rutgers-Camden NJAC 0.00 0.00 199 0 2 243 Sage Empire Eight 0.00 0.59 200 0 3 244 Saint Joseph Great Northe 0.00 0.83 201 2 1 245 Saint Joseph's (ME Great Northe 0.00 0.81 202 3 1 246 Salem 0.00 0.00 203 1 7 247 Salem State MASCAC 0.00 0.00 204 1 3 248 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 0.00 0.80 205 2 1 249 Scranton Landmark 0.00 0.00 206 2 4 250 Sewanee SAA 0.00 0.00 207 4 5 251 Skidmore Liberty Leag 0.00 0.00 208 0 5 252 Smith NEWMAC 0.00 0.67 209 2 2 253 Southern Maine Little East 0.00 0.00 210 1 2 254 Southern Vermont NECC 0.00 0.00 211 0 0 255 Southern Virginia Capital 0.00 0.89 212 5 0 257 St. Joseph's (NY) Skyline 0.00 0.00 213 0 3 258 St. Lawrence Liberty Leag 0.00 0.80 214 1 1 259 St. Mary's (IN) 0.00 0.00 215 2 3 260 Stevenson Commonwealth 0.00 0.66 216 2 2 261 SUNY Poly NEAC 0.00 0.66 217 2 1 262 Susquehanna Landmark 0.00 0.00 218 3 4 263 Swarthmore Centennial 0.00 0.85 219 4 1 264 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 0.00 0.00 220 1 7 265 Thiel President's 0.00 0.00 221 1 5 266 Thomas North Atlant 0.00 0.00 222 0 2 267 Thomas More Heartland 0.00 0.62 223 0 4 268 Trine MIAA 0.00 0.00 224 1 6 269 U. of New England Comm. Coast 0.00 0.66 225 2 2 270 Union Liberty Leag 0.00 0.71 226 2 2 271 Ursinus Centennial 0.00 0.00 227 0 5 272 Virginia Wesleyan Old Dominion 0.00 0.00 228 1 6 273 Wartburg Midwest 0.00 0.00 229 0 2 274 Washington & Jeffe President's 0.00 0.78 230 3 4 275 Washington College Centennial 0.00 0.00 231 2 3 276 Waynesburg President's 0.00 0.65 232 1 1 277 Wellesley NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 233 1 3 278 Wells NEAC 0.00 0.64 234 1 1 279 Wentworth Tech Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 235 0 4 280 Wesley Capital 0.00 0.66 236 4 1 281 Western Connecticu Little East 0.00 0.71 237 2 1 282 Western New Englan Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 238 1 3 283 Whitman Northwest 0.00 0.00 239 0 4 285 Whitworth Northwest 0.00 0.00 240 1 2 286 Widener Commonwealth 0.00 0.80 241 3 2 287 Wilkes Freedom 0.00 0.00 242 2 5 288 Willamette Northwest 0.00 0.73 243 2 1 289 William Peace USA South At 0.00 0.63 244 2 2 290 Williams NESCAC 0.00 0.68 245 1 2 291 Wisconsin-La Cross 0.00 0.00 246 1 5 293 Wittenberg North Coast 0.00 0.00 247 2 5 294 Wooster North Coast 0.00 0.71 248 2 2 295 Worcester State MASCAC 0.00 0.72 249 2 3 POOL2 19 Pomona-Pitzer SCIAC 0.00 0.85 1 7 0 37 Claremont-Mudd-Scr SCIAC 0.00 0.82 2 5 1 81 Occidental SCIAC 0.00 0.87 3 5 3 121 California Luthera SCIAC 0.00 0.00 4 0 6 130 Chapman SCIAC 0.00 0.00 5 3 4 136 Colorado College Independent 0.00 0.84 6 3 2 140 Dallas Independent 0.00 0.00 7 1 4 144 D'Youville Independent 0.00 0.71 8 2 1 159 Franciscan Independent 0.00 0.00 9 0 4 172 Hollins Independent 0.00 0.00 10 0 2 217 Northwestern (MN) Independent 0.00 0.00 11 0 4 236 Redlands SCIAC 0.00 0.00 12 2 4 256 Southwestern Independent 0.00 0.74 13 4 3 284 Whittier SCIAC 0.00 0.00 14 1 5 292 Wisconsin-RiverFal Independent 0.00 0.65 15 3 1