PROBABILITIES

The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance). However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances. At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection. Algorithm
Rank Team Name Conference AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L Rating Ranking EAST 3 Le Moyne Northeast 10 0.00 0.98 1 4 0 8 Saint Anselm Northeast 10 0.00 0.94 2 4 0 10 Mercy East Coast 0.00 0.73 3 4 1 17 Adelphi Northeast 10 0.00 0.95 4 3 1 19 Pace Northeast 10 0.00 0.57 5 1 1 21 Bentley Northeast 10 0.00 0.56 6 2 1 24 Stonehill Northeast 10 0.00 0.48 7 2 2 25 Assumption Northeast 10 0.00 0.71 8 3 0 30 Saint Michael's Northeast 10 0.00 0.71 9 0 0 35 S. New Hampshire Northeast 10 0.00 0.72 10 2 1 37 American Internati Northeast 10 0.00 0.48 11 3 1 38 Bridgeport East Coast 0.00 0.72 12 5 1 40 New Haven Northeast 10 0.00 0.78 13 2 0 43 Franklin Pierce Northeast 10 0.00 0.60 14 2 2 47 NYIT East Coast 0.00 0.43 15 3 2 48 Roberts Wesleyan East Coast 0.00 0.78 16 4 1 81 Molloy East Coast 0.00 0.56 17 2 3 94 Saint Rose Northeast 10 0.00 0.62 18 2 3 97 Southern Connectic Northeast 10 0.00 0.58 19 2 3 99 St. Thomas Aquinas East Coast 0.00 0.50 20 5 2 103 University of DC East Coast 0.00 0.00 21 0 3 ATLANTIC 4 West Chester PSAC 0.00 0.63 1 2 0 6 East Stroudsburg PSAC 0.00 0.93 2 4 1 12 Mercyhurst PSAC 0.00 0.89 3 3 1 14 Bloomsburg PSAC 0.00 0.82 4 4 1 18 Millersville PSAC 0.00 0.71 5 3 2 20 Lock Haven PSAC 0.00 0.64 6 3 2 26 Seton Hill PSAC 0.00 0.43 7 3 3 27 Gannon PSAC 0.00 0.57 8 4 2 33 Shippensburg PSAC 0.00 0.40 9 3 3 44 Indiana (PA) PSAC 0.00 0.22 10 2 2 53 Caldwell CACC North 0.00 0.00 11 0 4 56 Chestnut Hill CACC South 0.00 0.00 12 0 4 63 Dominican CACC North 0.00 0.00 13 0 4 64 Edinboro PSAC 0.00 0.50 14 2 2 67 Felician CACC North 0.00 0.34 15 1 1 71 Georgian Court CACC North 0.00 0.00 16 1 6 72 Holy Family CACC South 0.00 0.00 17 0 3 73 Kutztown PSAC 0.00 0.00 18 2 3 88 Nyack CACC North 0.00 0.13 19 1 1 91 Post CACC North 0.00 0.00 20 1 6 96 Slippery Rock PSAC 0.00 0.00 21 2 3 100 Thomas Jefferson CACC South 0.00 0.00 22 0 4 111 Wilmington CACC South 0.00 0.00 23 1 6 SOUTH 5 Queens South Atlant 0.00 0.66 1 5 0 7 Tampa Sunshine 0.00 0.88 2 6 1 11 Florida Southern Sunshine 0.00 0.77 3 6 3 13 Rollins Sunshine 0.00 0.99 4 6 1 16 Embry-Riddle 0.00 0.95 5 5 2 22 Florida Tech Sunshine 0.00 0.72 6 6 2 23 Saint Leo Sunshine 0.00 0.91 7 4 3 34 Lenoir-Rhyne South Atlant 0.00 0.28 8 4 2 36 Alabama-Huntsville Gulf South 0.00 0.85 9 5 2 42 Belmont Abbey Carolinas 0.00 0.57 10 7 2 46 Limestone Carolinas 0.00 0.79 11 6 2 52 Barton Carolinas 0.00 0.33 12 4 4 54 Catawba South Atlant 0.00 0.00 13 1 4 57 Chowan Carolinas 0.00 0.00 14 1 6 58 Coker South Atlant 0.00 0.00 15 2 3 60 Converse Carolinas 0.00 0.00 16 0 6 65 Emmanuel (GA) Carolinas 0.00 0.00 17 0 6 66 Erskine Carolinas 0.00 0.00 18 0 8 74 Lander Gulf South 0.00 0.00 19 4 5 75 Lee Gulf South 0.00 0.50 20 6 2 76 Lees-McRae Carolinas 0.00 0.00 21 2 4 78 Lincoln Memorial South Atlant 0.00 0.00 22 2 3 79 Lynn Sunshine 0.00 0.59 23 4 3 80 Mars Hill South Atlant 0.00 0.64 24 4 4 82 Montevallo Gulf South 0.00 0.47 25 4 4 83 Mount Olive Carolinas 0.00 0.62 26 7 0 84 Newberry South Atlant 0.00 0.00 27 4 5 85 North Greenville Carolinas 0.00 0.00 28 3 6 95 Shorter Gulf South 0.00 0.00 29 0 5 98 Southern Wesleyan Carolinas 0.00 0.00 30 2 4 102 Tusculum South Atlant 0.00 0.14 31 3 3 112 Wingate South Atlant 0.00 0.00 32 3 5 113 Young Harris Gulf South 0.00 0.00 33 3 5 MIDWEST 1 Indianapolis Great Lakes 0.00 0.92 1 7 1 2 Lindenwood Rocky Mounta 0.00 1.00 2 9 1 9 Grand Valley State Great Lakes 0.00 0.82 3 3 1 15 Concordia-St. Paul Great Lakes 0.00 0.69 4 5 2 28 Davenport GLIAC 0.00 0.74 5 4 1 29 Regis (CO) Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.80 6 2 2 31 Maryville (MO) Great Lakes 0.00 0.40 7 3 2 32 McKendree Great Lakes 0.00 0.45 8 4 3 39 Colorado Mesa Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.30 9 2 1 41 Shepherd Mountain Eas 0.00 0.54 10 3 2 45 Lake Erie Great Midwes 0.00 0.29 11 0 0 49 Adams State Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.00 12 0 3 50 Alderson Broaddus Great Midwes 0.00 0.26 13 2 2 51 Ashland Great Lakes 0.00 0.00 14 2 4 55 Charleston Mountain Eas 0.00 0.51 15 2 2 59 Colo.-Colorado Spr Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.00 16 3 4 61 CSU-Pueblo Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.00 17 1 4 62 Davis & Elkins Great Midwes 0.00 0.00 18 1 3 68 Findlay Great Lakes 0.00 0.48 19 2 3 69 Fort Lewis Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.52 20 2 0 77 Lewis Great Lakes 0.00 0.00 21 2 6 86 Northern Michigan Great Lakes 0.00 0.00 22 2 3 87 Notre Dame (OH) Mountain Eas 0.00 0.00 23 2 3 89 Oklahoma Baptist Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.00 24 0 5 92 Quincy 0.00 0.30 25 3 4 93 Rockhurst Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.29 26 4 4 101 Tiffin Great Lakes 0.00 0.00 27 1 4 104 Upper Iowa Great Lakes 0.00 0.70 28 0 1 106 Ursuline Great Midwes 0.00 0.00 29 0 2 107 UVa-Wise Mountain Eas 0.00 0.00 30 2 5 108 Walsh Great Lakes 0.00 0.66 31 2 3 109 West Virginia Wesl Mountain Eas 0.00 0.00 32 0 4 110 Westminster Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.00 33 0 1