PROBABILITIES

The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance). However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances. At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection. Algorithm
Rank Team Name Conference AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L Rating Ranking 2 North Carolina Atlantic Coa 100.00 AQ 7 0 3 Loyola Patriot Leag 100.00 AQ 5 0 5 Northwestern Big Ten 100.00 AQ 4 3 6 James Madison Colonial 100.00 AQ 5 1 7 Southern Californi Pacific 12 100.00 AQ 6 0 11 Florida American 100.00 AQ 6 2 12 Stony Brook America East 100.00 AQ 4 1 28 Princeton Ivy League 100.00 AQ 3 2 31 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 100.00 AQ 3 1 40 Georgetown Big East 100.00 AQ 4 3 41 Richmond Atlantic 10 100.00 AQ 7 0 64 Fairfield Metro Atlant 100.00 AQ 2 5 72 High Point Big South 100.00 AQ 1 4 86 Mercer Southern 100.00 AQ 5 2 114 Wagner Northeast 100.00 AQ 3 4 1 Syracuse Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.85 1 7 1 4 Notre Dame Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.90 2 7 0 8 Virginia Tech Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.88 3 7 3 9 Dartmouth Ivy League 0.00 0.93 4 5 0 10 Michigan Big Ten 0.00 0.54 5 5 1 13 Maryland Big Ten 0.00 0.66 6 3 3 14 Army Patriot Leag 0.00 0.93 7 7 0 15 Boston College Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.80 8 4 3 16 Penn Ivy League 0.00 0.92 9 4 1 17 Duke Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.80 10 6 3 18 Virginia Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.78 11 5 3 19 Colorado Pacific 12 0.00 0.90 12 3 2 20 Denver Big East 0.00 0.75 13 7 1 21 Louisville Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.88 14 5 4 22 Penn State Big Ten 0.00 0.74 15 5 2 23 Brown Ivy League 0.00 0.67 16 4 3 24 Lehigh Patriot Leag 0.00 0.79 17 6 2 25 Hofstra Colonial 0.00 0.60 18 4 3 26 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 0.00 0.59 19 4 3 27 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 0.00 0.84 20 4 1 29 Albany America East 0.00 0.67 21 3 2 30 Cornell Ivy League 0.00 0.65 22 4 2 32 Ohio State Big Ten 0.00 0.48 23 5 4 33 San Diego State MPSF 0.00 0.64 24 3 2 34 American Patriot Leag 0.00 0.68 25 7 0 35 Connecticut American 0.00 0.84 26 5 2 36 Holy Cross Patriot Leag 0.00 0.66 27 5 3 37 Rutgers Big Ten 0.00 0.70 28 5 4 38 Boston University Patriot Leag 0.00 0.47 29 3 3 39 East Carolina American 0.00 0.56 30 5 3 42 Akron Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 31 0 7 43 Arizona State Pacific 12 0.00 0.83 32 5 3 44 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 33 3 5 45 Bryant Northeast 0.00 0.39 34 4 2 46 Bucknell Patriot Leag 0.00 0.00 35 3 5 47 Butler Big East 0.00 0.37 36 5 2 48 California Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 37 2 5 49 Campbell Big South 0.00 0.00 38 2 7 50 Canisius Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 39 1 5 51 Central Connecticu Northeast 0.00 0.00 40 0 6 52 Central Michigan Southern 0.00 0.00 41 2 3 53 Cincinnati American 0.00 0.34 42 3 4 54 Coastal Carolina Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 43 2 3 55 Colgate Patriot Leag 0.00 0.00 44 3 4 56 Columbia Ivy League 0.00 0.00 45 0 7 57 Davidson Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 46 2 4 58 Delaware Colonial 0.00 0.00 47 2 3 59 Delaware State Southern 0.00 0.00 48 1 5 60 Detroit Mercy Southern 0.00 0.00 49 1 7 61 Drexel Colonial 0.00 0.68 50 5 2 62 Duquesne Atlantic 10 0.00 0.32 51 3 3 63 Elon Colonial 0.00 0.58 52 3 2 65 Fresno State MPSF 0.00 0.00 53 2 5 66 Furman Southern 0.00 0.00 54 3 4 67 Gardner-Webb Big South 0.00 0.54 55 6 3 68 George Mason Atlantic 10 0.00 0.61 56 4 3 69 George Washington Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 57 0 7 70 Hartford America East 0.00 0.00 58 0 7 71 Harvard Ivy League 0.00 0.64 59 3 3 73 Howard Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 60 0 5 74 Iona Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 61 3 4 75 Kennesaw State Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.45 62 3 4 76 Kent State Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 63 0 6 77 La Salle Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 64 3 4 78 Lafayette Patriot Leag 0.00 0.56 65 4 3 79 Liberty Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.52 66 3 3 80 Long Island Northeast 0.00 0.00 67 1 5 81 Longwood Big South 0.00 0.00 68 3 5 82 Manhattan Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 69 3 4 83 Marist Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 70 2 4 84 Marquette Big East 0.00 0.64 71 6 4 85 Massachusetts-Lowe America East 0.00 0.00 72 2 5 87 Merrimack Northeast 0.00 0.00 73 1 6 88 Monmouth Metro Atlant 0.00 0.77 74 6 2 89 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 0.00 0.54 75 6 1 90 Navy Patriot Leag 0.00 0.00 76 2 4 91 New Hampshire America East 0.00 0.00 77 1 4 92 Niagara Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 78 3 4 93 Old Dominion Big East 0.00 0.00 79 3 6 94 Oregon Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 80 2 5 95 Presbyterian Big South 0.00 0.00 81 2 5 96 Quinnipiac Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 82 3 4 97 Radford Big South 0.00 0.00 83 2 7 98 Robert Morris Northeast 0.00 0.20 84 5 2 99 Sacred Heart Northeast 0.00 0.00 85 1 5 100 Saint Francis Northeast 0.00 0.39 86 4 3 101 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 0.00 0.46 87 4 3 102 Siena Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 88 3 4 103 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 0.00 0.35 89 5 2 104 Stanford Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 90 3 4 105 Stetson Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 91 1 4 106 Temple American 0.00 0.46 92 5 4 107 Towson Colonial 0.00 0.00 93 2 4 108 UC Davis MPSF 0.00 0.33 94 3 3 109 UMBC America East 0.00 0.00 95 2 4 110 Vanderbilt American 0.00 0.00 96 4 5 111 Vermont America East 0.00 0.29 97 4 4 112 Villanova Big East 0.00 0.00 98 3 5 113 Virginia Commonwea Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 99 3 4 115 William & Mary Colonial 0.00 0.00 100 2 5 116 Winthrop Big South 0.00 0.00 101 0 7 117 Wofford Southern 0.00 0.00 102 0 6 118 Yale Ivy League 0.00 0.79 103 3 2