Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 Complete List of At-Large predictions below.
 The past years predictions were 45 out of 55 or 86%.
 
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Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division II Championship Tournament

The format for the NCAA Division II Women s Lacrosse Championship is a sixteen-team, single-elimination tournament. Teams must play a minimum of 10 games in-region and have at least a .500 record, and regular-season games tied after regulation must be decided in overtime. Each region (North and South) will have six teams, and teams will be paired within region. The prediction is based on the rankings of region record, division record, record against teams with a 50% winning record and sos in-region. See NCAA for more info. Primary Factors for Selecting Teams [1] In-region Division II won-lost results [2] Overall division II won-lost results [3] Strength of schedule in-region [-] Division II Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Results vs. teams with records above .500 [-] Performance indicator (not defined by NCAA) Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. ? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?

Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Algorithm
EAST Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Le Moyne 74.20 2 6 0 6 10 4 0 4 0 0 2 Saint Anselm 64.50 4 7 0 12 9 5 0 4 0 0 3 Mercy 56.30 19 39 0 13 3 6 0 4 1 0 4 Adelphi 47.60 1 14 0 5 12 2 0 3 1 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Assumption 22.90 9 48 0 19 8 8 0 3 0 0 6 Bentley 21.80 13 71 0 27 7 9 0 2 1 0 7 Pace 19.80 13 76 0 17 7 9 0 1 1 0 8 New Haven 16.50 9 31 0 21 7 7 0 2 0 0 9 Stonehill 15.70 16 89 0 23 6 9 0 2 2 0 10 Roberts Wesleyan 12.40 5 19 0 39 5 3 0 4 1 0 11 S. New Hampshire 8.20 8 39 0 28 8 7 0 2 1 0 12 American Internation 5.30 17 76 0 37 5 8 0 3 1 0 13 Franklin Pierce 3.70 17 71 0 11 5 8 0 2 2 0 14 Bridgeport 3.30 3 19 0 58 6 3 0 5 1 0 15 NYIT 1.10 19 54 0 74 3 6 0 3 2 0 16 St. Thomas Aquinas 0.20 21 39 0 70 2 7 0 5 2 0 17 Molloy 0.00 12 58 0 42 5 6 0 2 3 0 18 Saint Rose 0.00 11 58 0 29 7 8 0 2 3 0 19 Southern Connecticut 0.00 15 58 0 35 6 8 0 2 3 0 20 University of DC 0.00 6 46 0 76 4 3 0 0 3 0 ATLANTIC Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 East Stroudsburg 77.40 2 3 0 22 10 3 0 4 1 0 2 West Chester 77.40 9 69 0 15 6 5 0 2 0 0 3 Bloomsburg 57.80 1 7 0 49 11 3 0 4 1 0 4 Mercyhurst 52.60 3 7 0 26 9 3 0 3 1 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Millersville 32.80 5 31 0 44 8 6 0 3 2 0 6 Lock Haven 32.70 6 42 0 47 9 7 0 3 2 0 7 Seton Hill 25.80 13 76 0 54 7 8 0 3 3 0 8 Shippensburg 16.40 19 97 0 30 5 9 0 3 3 0 9 Gannon 11.50 17 42 0 53 5 8 0 4 2 0 10 Edinboro 9.80 12 58 0 60 6 6 0 2 2 0 11 Indiana (PA) 5.70 22 105 0 66 4 10 0 2 2 0 12 Felician 0.10 7 55 0 112 5 4 0 1 1 0 13 Caldwell 0.00 14 87 0 86 5 6 0 0 4 0 14 Chestnut Hill 0.00 21 111 0 107 3 7 0 0 4 0 15 Dominican 0.00 15 106 0 106 4 5 0 0 4 0 16 Georgian Court 0.00 20 97 0 69 5 11 0 1 6 0 17 Holy Family 0.00 7 47 0 90 5 4 0 0 3 0 18 Kutztown 0.00 17 97 0 14 5 8 0 2 3 0 19 Nyack 0.00 23 89 0 109 2 7 0 1 1 0 20 Post 0.00 15 93 0 87 4 5 0 1 6 0 21 Slippery Rock 0.00 11 48 0 48 7 6 0 2 3 0 22 Thomas Jefferson 0.00 4 19 0 100 9 4 0 0 4 0 23 Wilmington 0.00 9 57 0 64 6 5 0 1 6 0 SOUTH Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Tampa 84.10 5 26 0 4 8 4 0 6 1 0 2 Rollins 74.20 1 7 0 2 11 3 0 6 1 0 3 Florida Southern 58.10 15 42 0 1 5 4 0 6 3 0 4 Queens 57.80 11 35 0 46 9 6 0 5 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Embry-Riddle 42.20 5 7 0 7 8 4 0 5 2 0 6 Florida Tech 37.20 19 42 0 10 4 5 0 6 2 0 7 Saint Leo 24.20 7 15 0 8 7 4 0 4 3 0 8 Limestone 6.00 2 5 0 56 13 4 0 6 2 0 9 Lenoir-Rhyne 5.90 30 87 0 62 5 11 0 4 2 0 10 Alabama-Huntsville 2.90 8 4 0 36 5 3 0 5 2 0 11 Lee 2.90 12 48 0 72 8 6 0 6 2 0 12 Belmont Abbey 2.10 8 26 0 84 10 6 0 7 2 0 13 Lynn 1.90 12 55 0 38 4 3 0 4 3 0 14 Mount Olive 0.50 8 26 0 71 10 6 0 7 0 0 15 Barton 0.00 17 48 0 110 6 6 0 4 4 0 16 Catawba 0.00 20 76 0 78 7 9 0 1 4 0 17 Chowan 0.00 31 110 0 108 3 9 0 1 6 0 18 Coker 0.00 3 17 0 94 8 3 0 2 3 0 19 Converse 0.00 32 109 0 81 3 10 0 0 6 0 20 Emmanuel (GA) 0.00 28 97 0 50 6 11 0 0 6 0 21 Erskine 0.00 33 103 0 88 3 11 0 0 8 0 22 Lander 0.00 29 76 0 32 5 10 0 4 5 0 23 Lees-McRae 0.00 26 85 0 111 5 9 0 2 4 0 24 Lincoln Memorial 0.00 24 97 0 61 5 8 0 2 3 0 25 Mars Hill 0.00 4 19 0 79 10 4 0 4 4 0 26 Montevallo 0.00 15 26 0 101 5 4 0 4 4 0 27 Newberry 0.00 17 58 0 77 8 8 0 4 5 0 28 North Greenville 0.00 14 48 0 25 9 7 0 3 6 0 29 Shorter 0.00 22 104 0 83 3 4 0 0 5 0 30 Southern Wesleyan 0.00 22 76 0 89 6 8 0 2 4 0 31 Tusculum 0.00 26 93 0 96 5 9 0 3 3 0 32 Wingate 0.00 24 93 0 51 5 8 0 3 5 0 33 Young Harris 0.00 20 58 0 40 7 9 0 3 5 0 MIDWEST Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Lindenwood 99.20 3 2 0 3 11 3 0 9 1 0 2 Indianapolis 94.60 4 7 0 16 8 4 0 7 1 0 3 Concordia-St. Paul 67.20 13 48 0 18 8 7 0 5 2 0 4 Grand Valley State 56.00 7 25 0 20 11 6 0 3 1 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Davenport 20.20 9 18 0 45 10 7 0 4 1 0 6 McKendree 13.10 20 65 0 55 6 8 0 4 3 0 7 Regis (CO) 11.40 2 1 0 59 12 1 0 2 2 0 8 Lake Erie 5.80 26 85 0 67 5 8 0 0 0 0 9 Shepherd 4.20 33 58 0 24 0 1 0 3 2 0 10 Maryville (MO) 2.50 19 68 0 65 5 6 0 3 2 0 11 Rockhurst 2.20 15 76 0 91 7 7 0 4 4 0 12 Colorado Mesa 1.50 20 74 0 85 6 8 0 2 1 0 13 Fort Lewis 1.20 8 24 0 99 6 4 0 2 0 0 14 Alderson Broaddus 0.40 13 75 0 103 8 7 0 2 2 0 15 Walsh 0.40 4 31 0 57 10 5 0 2 3 0 16 Adams State 0.00 22 92 0 93 5 7 0 0 3 0 17 Ashland 0.00 29 93 0 63 6 11 0 2 4 0 18 Charleston 0.00 11 26 0 97 6 5 0 2 2 0 19 Colo.-Colorado Sprin 0.00 10 35 0 82 10 8 0 3 4 0 20 CSU-Pueblo 0.00 31 108 0 52 4 10 0 1 4 0 21 Davis & Elkins 0.00 28 76 0 104 3 5 0 1 3 0 22 Findlay 0.00 23 76 0 31 6 9 0 2 3 0 23 Lewis 0.00 26 97 0 43 5 8 0 2 6 0 24 Northern Michigan 0.00 17 65 0 41 7 8 0 2 3 0 25 Notre Dame (OH) 0.00 23 71 0 80 4 6 0 2 3 0 26 Oklahoma Baptist 0.00 32 111 0 75 3 11 0 0 5 0 27 Quincy 0.00 23 65 0 92 4 6 0 3 4 0 28 Tiffin 0.00 17 70 0 34 7 8 0 1 4 0 29 Upper Iowa 0.00 4 13 0 68 8 4 0 0 1 0 30 Ursuline 0.00 30 89 0 105 4 9 0 0 2 0 31 UVa-Wise 0.00 1 19 0 73 1 0 0 2 5 0 32 West Virginia Wesley 0.00 15 37 0 98 4 4 0 0 4 0 33 Westminster 0.00 11 34 0 95 6 5 0 0 1 0