Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. ? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?

Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 Algorithm
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L [3] [4] [2] 1 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 100.10 100.00 90 97 94 2 5 2 High Point Big South 100.10 100.00 36 52 18 1 4 3 Florida American 100.00 100.00 10 6 22 6 2 4 Georgetown Big East 100.00 100.00 38 47 65 4 3 5 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 100.00 100.00 51 18 80 3 1 6 James Madison Colonial 100.00 100.00 7 11 15 5 1 7 Loyola Patriot League 100.00 100.00 1 1 9 5 0 8 Mercer Southern 100.00 100.00 75 39 79 5 2 9 North Carolina Atlantic Coast 100.00 100.00 5 2 6 7 0 10 Northwestern Big Ten 100.00 100.00 15 25 34 4 3 11 Princeton Ivy League 100.00 100.00 42 30 33 3 2 12 Richmond Atlantic 10 100.00 100.00 28 7 69 7 0 13 Southern California Pacific 12 100.00 100.00 3 4 56 6 0 14 Stony Brook America East 100.00 100.00 9 15 60 4 1 15 Wagner Northeast 100.00 100.00 64 79 95 3 4 16 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 98.00 0.00 8 3 17 7 0 17 Syracuse Atlantic Coast 97.50 0.00 14 8 2 7 1 18 Dartmouth Ivy League 85.50 0.00 4 5 5 5 0 19 Army Patriot League 81.10 0.00 29 10 32 7 0 20 Michigan Big Ten 77.90 0.00 2 13 19 5 1 21 Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast 76.10 0.00 26 26 14 7 3 22 Boston College Atlantic Coast 65.50 0.00 13 20 1 4 3 23 Virginia Atlantic Coast 59.80 0.00 18 45 4 5 3 24 Penn Ivy League 58.60 0.00 6 14 21 4 1 25 Penn State Big Ten 53.10 0.00 12 17 36 5 2 26 Duke Atlantic Coast 50.20 0.00 40 27 13 6 3 27 Lehigh Patriot League 49.20 0.00 27 24 39 6 2 28 Maryland Big Ten 47.70 0.00 17 29 12 3 3 29 Louisville Atlantic Coast 45.30 0.00 21 44 26 5 4 30 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 40.80 0.00 11 12 42 4 1 31 Brown Ivy League 37.60 0.00 19 37 7 4 3 32 Colorado Pacific 12 32.30 0.00 25 21 10 3 2 33 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 27.70 0.00 16 35 48 4 3 34 Denver Big East 26.90 0.00 30 16 54 7 1 35 Albany America East 21.90 0.00 23 23 46 3 2 36 Hofstra Colonial 20.30 0.00 32 28 30 4 3 37 Connecticut American 17.10 0.00 44 22 45 5 2 38 San Diego State MPSF 16.70 0.00 24 31 67 3 2 39 Cornell Ivy League 16.50 0.00 49 33 49 4 2 40 Boston University Patriot League 12.70 0.00 59 42 35 3 3 41 Arizona State Pacific 12 12.50 0.00 53 49 3 5 3 42 Ohio State Big Ten 10.90 0.00 31 48 38 5 4 43 Rutgers Big Ten 9.70 0.00 34 54 25 5 4 44 Holy Cross Patriot League 9.60 0.00 84 53 41 5 3 45 American Patriot League 9.20 0.00 56 9 86 7 0 46 East Carolina American 5.60 0.00 61 58 37 5 3 47 Drexel Colonial 3.70 0.00 43 34 68 5 2 48 George Mason Atlantic 10 3.40 0.00 35 51 50 4 3 49 Yale Ivy League 3.10 0.00 39 32 51 3 2 50 Harvard Ivy League 2.70 0.00 41 65 47 3 3 51 Liberty Atlantic Sun 2.70 0.00 58 66 59 3 3 52 Lafayette Patriot League 2.30 0.00 73 62 40 4 3 53 Marquette Big East 2.00 0.00 45 63 44 6 4 54 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 1.90 0.00 37 36 61 6 2 55 Duquesne Atlantic 10 1.20 0.00 79 57 64 3 3 56 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 1.00 0.00 47 59 88 4 3 57 Elon Colonial 0.80 0.00 70 46 82 3 2 58 Butler Big East 0.50 0.00 93 43 89 5 2 59 Temple American 0.50 0.00 80 75 63 5 4 60 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 0.20 0.00 55 19 116 6 1 61 Bryant Northeast 0.10 0.00 50 38 99 4 2 62 UC Davis MPSF 0.10 0.00 63 67 100 3 3 63 Akron Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 113 114 113 0 7 64 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 69 91 105 3 5 65 Bucknell Patriot League 0.00 0.00 99 93 52 3 5 66 California Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 67 87 62 2 5 67 Campbell Big South 0.00 0.00 98 112 85 2 7 68 Canisius Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 91 94 74 1 5 69 Central Connecticut Northeast 0.00 0.00 116 108 92 0 6 70 Central Michigan Southern 0.00 0.00 57 56 84 2 3 71 Cincinnati American 0.00 0.00 76 80 58 3 4 72 Coastal Carolina Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 74 68 97 2 3 73 Colgate Patriot League 0.00 0.00 52 73 28 3 4 74 Columbia Ivy League 0.00 0.00 101 115 23 0 7 75 Davidson Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 46 72 24 2 4 76 Delaware Colonial 0.00 0.00 54 69 29 2 3 77 Delaware State Southern 0.00 0.00 115 102 104 1 5 78 Detroit Mercy Southern 0.00 0.00 103 111 87 1 7 79 Fresno State MPSF 0.00 0.00 104 98 90 2 5 80 Furman Southern 0.00 0.00 68 76 81 3 4 81 Gardner-Webb Big South 0.00 0.00 82 50 109 6 3 82 George Washington Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 105 116 20 0 7 83 Hartford America East 0.00 0.00 110 117 55 0 7 84 Howard Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 117 105 111 0 5 85 Iona Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 89 81 72 3 4 86 Kennesaw State Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 77 70 57 3 4 87 Kent State Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 108 109 115 0 6 88 La Salle Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 85 82 31 3 4 89 Long Island Northeast 0.00 0.00 86 103 98 1 5 90 Longwood Big South 0.00 0.00 60 95 78 3 5 91 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 92 83 107 3 4 92 Marist Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 66 88 101 2 4 93 Massachusetts-Lowell America East 0.00 0.00 88 92 75 2 5 94 Merrimack Northeast 0.00 0.00 112 107 83 1 6 95 Navy Patriot League 0.00 0.00 48 71 16 2 4 96 New Hampshire America East 0.00 0.00 94 74 91 1 4 97 Niagara Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 78 84 108 3 4 98 Old Dominion Big East 0.00 0.00 107 106 70 3 6 99 Oregon Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 87 99 43 2 5 100 Presbyterian Big South 0.00 0.00 106 100 106 2 5 101 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 95 85 110 3 4 102 Radford Big South 0.00 0.00 102 113 93 2 7 103 Robert Morris Northeast 0.00 0.00 71 40 117 5 2 104 Sacred Heart Northeast 0.00 0.00 114 104 102 1 5 105 Saint Francis Northeast 0.00 0.00 100 64 112 4 3 106 Siena Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 62 77 76 3 4 107 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 109 41 77 5 2 108 Stanford Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 22 60 8 3 4 109 Stetson Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 111 90 118 1 4 110 Towson Colonial 0.00 0.00 33 55 27 2 4 111 UMBC America East 0.00 0.00 65 89 73 2 4 112 Vanderbilt American 0.00 0.00 20 61 11 4 5 113 Vermont America East 0.00 0.00 81 78 114 4 4 114 Villanova Big East 0.00 0.00 72 96 71 3 5 115 Virginia Commonwealt Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 97 86 66 3 4 116 William & Mary Colonial 0.00 0.00 83 101 53 2 5 117 Winthrop Big South 0.00 0.00 118 118 103 0 7 118 Wofford Southern 0.00 0.00 96 110 96 0 6