PROBABILITIES

The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance). However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances. At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection. Algorithm
Rank Team Name Conference AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L Rating Ranking 1 Salisbury CAC 29.50 0.76 1 7 0 2 Christ. Newport CAC 17.40 0.84 2 5 1 3 RIT Liberty 27.10 0.83 3 4 0 4 Tufts NESCAC 28.90 0.66 4 3 0 5 Denison NCAC 24.90 0.85 5 4 0 6 Ursinus Centennial 16.10 0.81 6 6 0 7 York CAC 22.80 0.60 7 4 2 8 Gettysburg Centennial 24.60 0.76 8 5 1 9 Union Liberty 18.60 0.88 9 3 1 10 Williams NESCAC 22.70 0.79 10 3 0 11 St. John Fisher Empire 8 20.90 0.79 11 3 1 12 Randolph-Macon ODAC 11.60 0.71 12 6 0 13 St. Lawrence Liberty 10.50 0.74 13 3 0 14 Clarkson Liberty 10.80 0.77 14 2 1 15 Cortland SUNYAC 25.10 0.72 15 2 1 16 Lynchburg ODAC 22.70 0.57 16 2 3 17 Middlebury NESCAC 16.10 0.86 17 2 0 18 Geneseo SUNYAC 19.10 0.79 18 3 1 19 Hampden-Sydney ODAC 15.90 0.71 19 4 1 20 Rhodes Southern 28.30 0.74 20 5 2 21 UMass Boston LEC 24.10 0.68 21 4 0 22 John Carroll OAC 20.20 0.51 22 3 1 23 MSOE MLC 17.20 0.88 23 3 1 24 U. of Northwestern MLC 29.50 0.75 24 3 0 25 Franklin & Marshal Centennial 19.10 0.43 25 3 1 26 Hope MIAA 27.50 0.75 26 3 0 27 Kean CSAC 18.90 0.68 27 3 0 28 Muhlenberg Centennial 7.40 0.76 28 4 0 29 Stevens MAC-Freedom 23.50 0.72 29 3 2 30 Swarthmore Centennial 11.30 0.85 30 3 2 31 Widener MAC-Commonwe 19.70 0.65 31 4 1 33 Dickinson Centennial 6.80 0.60 32 3 2 34 No. Central (IL) CCIW 19.50 0.74 33 3 1 35 Scranton Landmark 28.70 0.77 34 3 3 36 So. Virginia CAC 13.20 0.55 35 6 1 37 Washington & Lee ODAC 17.80 0.55 36 3 3 39 Stevenson MAC-Commonwe 19.20 0.56 37 1 3 40 Endicott CCC 22.50 0.68 38 2 2 41 Rensselaer Liberty 8.80 0.85 39 4 1 42 St. Mary's CAC 10.00 0.55 40 5 1 43 Keuka NEAC 18.70 0.43 41 2 0 44 Albion MIAA 19.10 0.84 42 4 2 45 Benedictine (IL) MLC 9.80 0.68 43 4 1 46 Brockport SUNYAC 12.00 0.83 44 2 1 47 Canton NAC 15.80 0.45 45 1 2 48 Centre Southern 21.30 0.69 46 2 3 49 Farmingdale St. Skyline 22.50 0.70 47 6 0 50 Illinois Wesleyan CCIW 26.80 0.39 48 4 2 51 Ithaca Liberty 9.00 0.94 49 2 2 52 King's MAC-Freedom 10.40 0.73 50 5 0 53 Plattsburgh SUNYAC 15.30 0.62 51 2 1 54 Stockton CSAC 15.90 0.80 52 5 0 55 Wesleyan NESCAC 9.10 0.51 53 2 1 56 Western Conn. LEC 14.70 0.57 54 5 1 57 Baldwin Wallace OAC 14.50 0.75 55 2 2 58 Catholic Landmark 21.00 0.60 56 3 4 59 Clark NEWMAC 26.80 0.46 57 0 4 60 Drew Landmark 6.50 0.45 58 3 2 61 Eastern Conn. LEC 18.20 0.67 59 2 0 62 Elizabethtown Landmark 15.20 0.61 60 3 3 63 Kenyon NCAC 14.30 0.69 61 5 0 64 Lycoming MAC-Commonwe 9.00 0.64 62 2 3 65 Maritime Skyline 26.80 0.64 63 3 1 66 Mary Washington CAC 7.10 0.59 64 3 4 67 Misericordia MAC-Freedom 20.10 0.75 65 3 1 68 Regis GNAC 14.20 0.40 66 1 1 69 Skidmore Liberty 6.60 0.75 67 2 2 70 Trine MIAA 17.30 0.71 68 4 0 71 U. of New England CCC 9.40 0.62 69 4 1 72 Amherst NESCAC 7.30 0.69 70 2 1 73 Anna Maria GNAC 6.30 0.38 71 3 2 74 Arcadia MAC-Commonwe 13.70 0.70 72 4 2 75 Birmingham-Souther Southern 17.30 0.44 73 4 4 76 Concordia-Wisc. MLC 11.70 0.64 74 4 1 77 Nazareth Empire 8 21.20 0.66 75 3 2 78 Norwich GNAC 9.40 0.50 76 1 2 79 Piedmont USA South 31.80 0.55 77 4 2 80 Salve Regina CCC 11.30 0.63 78 4 1 81 Springfield NEWMAC 13.30 0.52 79 0 4 82 Wentworth CCC 15.10 0.69 80 3 1 83 Western New Eng. CCC 21.10 0.66 81 3 1 84 Adrian MIAA 10.30 0.55 82 3 1 85 Albright MAC-Commonwe 6.10 0.46 83 2 3 86 Alfred Empire 8 16.40 0.49 84 3 2 87 Berry Southern 6.50 0.00 85 0 4 88 Bridgewater ODAC 7.00 0.68 86 2 2 89 Centenary (NJ) CSAC 13.10 0.32 87 0 4 90 Coast Guard NEWMAC 14.10 0.59 88 2 4 91 Delaware Valley MAC-Freedom 7.40 0.66 89 3 3 92 Greensboro USA South 14.00 0.73 90 4 3 93 Hanover Heartland 26.30 0.46 91 2 4 94 Keystone CSAC 10.70 0.36 92 0 2 95 Marian MLC 9.70 0.66 93 1 1 96 MIT NEWMAC 7.30 0.77 94 3 1 97 Montclair State CSAC 14.70 0.50 95 3 2 98 Oberlin NCAC 10.50 0.60 96 2 1 99 Ohio Northern OAC 17.90 0.71 97 4 2 100 Randolph ODAC 3.10 0.55 98 2 5 101 Roanoke ODAC 9.50 0.70 99 2 3 102 Saint Vincent Presidents 19.60 0.74 100 3 1 103 St. Joseph's (ME) GNAC 20.50 0.55 101 3 1 104 Thomas NAC 11.30 0.38 102 0 1 105 Transylvania Heartland 30.80 0.49 103 3 2 106 Trinity NESCAC 3.70 0.48 104 2 1 107 William Peace USA South 9.80 0.34 105 2 3 108 Wittenberg NCAC 9.80 0.81 106 2 2 109 Wooster NCAC 18.50 0.69 107 2 2 110 Alfred State NEAC 7.60 0.40 108 0 2 111 Allegheny NCAC 4.10 0.00 109 1 3 112 Alma MIAA 6.00 0.00 110 1 3 113 Aurora MLC 5.20 0.00 111 2 4 114 Babson NEWMAC 21.20 0.62 112 3 2 115 Bryn Athyn CSAC 17.10 0.59 113 0 4 116 Calvin MIAA 12.00 0.53 114 3 1 117 Capital OAC 11.10 0.58 115 1 4 118 Carroll CCIW 5.90 0.00 116 1 3 119 Carthage CCIW 16.30 0.54 117 4 1 120 Cobleskill NEAC 19.20 0.43 118 0 1 121 Cornell College MLC 3.30 0.61 119 1 1 122 Curry CCC 5.20 0.00 120 0 3 123 Delhi NAC 26.60 0.70 121 2 3 124 DeSales MAC-Freedom 10.90 0.58 122 3 1 125 Eastern MAC-Freedom 14.70 0.53 123 2 4 126 Gordon CCC 5.20 0.69 124 2 3 127 Guilford ODAC 4.00 0.53 125 5 2 128 Hamilton NESCAC 7.10 0.59 126 2 1 129 Hartwick Empire 8 12.40 0.37 127 0 2 130 Heidelberg OAC 7.70 0.00 128 1 3 131 Kalamazoo MIAA 7.80 0.34 129 4 1 132 Lasell GNAC 5.30 0.50 130 1 2 133 McDaniel Centennial 5.70 0.60 131 2 3 134 MCLA NAC 6.50 0.00 132 0 3 135 Morrisville NEAC 9.30 0.00 133 0 2 136 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 8.00 0.00 134 1 4 137 Muskingum OAC 3.60 0.00 135 0 3 139 Nichols CCC 3.60 0.00 136 1 4 140 Oglethorpe Southern 5.50 0.28 137 5 4 141 Ohio Wesleyan NCAC 5.90 0.74 138 2 3 142 Oneonta SUNYAC 7.90 0.44 139 1 2 143 Otterbein OAC 7.40 0.53 140 3 2 144 Purchase Skyline 9.20 0.37 141 1 0 145 Rivier GNAC 4.50 0.20 142 2 2 146 Saint Joseph (CT) GNAC 3.60 0.37 143 2 1 147 Salem State LEC 6.90 0.61 144 2 1 148 Shenandoah ODAC 3.70 0.49 145 3 2 149 So. Maine LEC 4.90 0.38 146 1 1 151 St. Joseph's (LI) Skyline 13.00 0.56 147 1 2 152 SUNY Poly NEAC 16.20 0.48 148 2 2 153 Washington & Jeffe Presidents 15.50 0.36 149 1 3 155 Albertus Magnus GNAC 4.60 0.37 150 1 1 156 Alvernia MAC-Commonwe 5.70 0.56 151 2 2 157 Anderson Heartland 13.30 0.10 152 1 4 158 Augustana CCIW 7.60 0.00 153 1 5 159 Averett USA South 3.30 0.00 154 0 6 160 Bard Liberty 4.30 0.66 155 1 2 161 Bates NESCAC 0.90 0.00 156 1 4 163 Beloit MLC 2.70 0.38 157 1 2 164 Bethany Presidents 6.80 0.00 158 0 3 165 Bowdoin NESCAC 2.10 0.00 159 0 2 166 Castleton LEC 4.10 0.00 160 0 3 167 Cazenovia NEAC 6.50 0.00 161 0 2 169 Chatham Presidents 12.40 0.43 162 2 4 170 Colby NESCAC 0.90 0.00 163 0 2 171 Concordia-Chic. MLC 4.00 0.00 164 0 2 172 Connecticut Col. NESCAC 1.20 0.58 165 1 1 175 DePauw NCAC 4.40 0.00 166 1 4 176 Dubuque CCIW 11.10 0.46 167 2 2 177 Earlham Heartland 20.20 0.27 168 0 3 178 Elmhurst CCIW 12.80 0.47 169 1 5 179 Elmira Empire 8 9.20 0.58 170 2 2 180 Emerson NEWMAC 10.30 0.60 171 2 2 181 Emmanuel (MA) GNAC 20.60 0.59 172 0 3 182 FDU-Florham MAC-Freedom 8.90 0.00 173 1 3 183 Ferrum ODAC 1.30 0.62 174 3 3 184 Franciscan Presidents 5.30 0.00 175 0 3 185 Goucher Landmark 12.00 0.51 176 3 3 186 Grove City Presidents 24.80 0.72 177 1 2 188 Haverford Centennial 4.10 0.00 178 0 5 189 Hendrix Southern 12.10 0.49 179 3 3 190 Hilbert NEAC 12.80 0.52 180 3 1 191 Hiram NCAC 3.90 0.36 181 4 1 192 Hood MAC-Commonwe 6.30 0.33 182 1 2 193 Houghton Empire 8 4.30 0.35 183 2 2 194 Huntingdon USA South 4.70 0.00 184 3 6 195 Husson NAC 12.50 0.28 185 0 5 196 Illinois Tech MLC 1.90 0.54 186 0 1 199 JWU-Providence GNAC 11.00 0.51 187 1 3 200 Keene State LEC 11.20 0.41 188 0 3 202 LaGrange USA South 4.20 0.00 189 2 5 203 Lebanon Valley MAC-Commonwe 8.50 0.00 190 1 4 204 Maine Maritime NAC 20.40 0.35 191 3 1 206 Marietta OAC 5.40 0.37 192 3 3 210 Medaille NEAC 4.90 0.00 193 1 3 211 Merchant Marine Skyline 14.10 0.51 194 0 2 212 Messiah MAC-Commonwe 11.80 0.50 195 0 4 213 Methodist USA South 10.10 0.59 196 3 3 215 Monmouth (IL) MLC 5.00 0.61 197 3 3 216 Moravian Landmark 7.50 0.49 198 2 3 217 Mount St. Joseph Heartland 9.40 0.00 199 0 2 218 Mount Union OAC 7.10 0.68 200 4 2 219 Mt. St. Vincent Skyline 6.40 0.42 201 3 0 221 New Paltz SUNYAC 4.30 0.58 202 1 2 224 NVU-Lyndon NAC 6.90 0.34 203 0 1 225 Oswego SUNYAC 10.60 0.51 204 3 0 226 Pfeiffer USA South 22.10 0.41 205 2 2 227 Plymouth State LEC 7.30 0.46 206 1 2 228 Potsdam SUNYAC 5.70 0.45 207 2 1 229 Roger Williams CCC 6.60 0.65 208 3 2 230 Rosemont CSAC 9.60 0.00 209 0 5 231 Sage Empire 8 7.10 0.00 210 1 4 232 Sewanee Southern 9.00 0.00 211 1 5 233 Susquehanna Landmark 9.10 0.00 212 1 6 234 Thiel Presidents 9.20 0.35 213 3 3 235 UMass Dartmouth LEC 8.60 0.00 214 1 3 236 Utica Empire 8 8.50 0.00 215 0 4 237 Vassar Liberty 4.30 0.59 216 2 2 238 Virginia Wesleyan ODAC 3.40 1.00 217 4 1 239 Wabash NCAC 3.70 0.00 218 0 2 240 Washington Coll. Centennial 4.90 0.00 219 0 5 241 Wells NEAC 4.80 0.54 220 0 1 243 Westminster (PA) Presidents 6.40 0.00 221 1 5 244 Wheaton NEWMAC 7.00 0.73 222 3 2 245 Wilkes MAC-Freedom 4.10 0.28 223 1 2 246 Wilmington (OH) OAC 5.10 0.68 224 3 0 POOL 1 162 Becker NECC 0.00 0.00 1 0 3 174 Dean College NECC 0.00 0.38 2 1 1 205 Manhattanville MAC-Freedom 0.00 0.00 3 1 3 209 Mass. Maritime NEWMAC 0.00 0.48 4 1 1 214 Mitchell NECC 0.00 0.00 5 1 4 220 New England NECC 0.00 0.73 6 3 2 POOL 2 32 Colorado College SCAC 0.00 0.65 1 5 0 38 Cabrini AEC 0.00 0.71 2 3 1 138 Neumann AEC 0.00 0.77 3 5 1 150 Southwestern SCAC 0.00 0.46 4 4 0 154 Whittier Independent 0.00 0.68 5 2 0 168 Centenary (LA) SCAC 0.00 0.00 6 0 6 173 Dallas SCAC 0.00 0.00 7 1 2 187 Gwynedd Mercy AEC 0.00 0.51 8 3 3 197 Immaculata AEC 0.00 0.00 9 1 2 198 JWU-Denver SCAC 0.00 0.21 10 0 4 201 La Roche Independent 0.00 0.41 11 2 2 207 Marymount AEC 0.00 0.00 12 1 5 208 Marywood AEC 0.00 0.00 13 2 5 222 No. Central (MN) Independent 0.00 0.00 14 0 1 223 Northland Independent 0.00 0.00 15 0 6 242 Wesley AEC 0.00 0.47 16 2 1