PROBABILITIES

The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance). However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances. At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection. Algorithm
Rank Team Name Conference AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L Rating Ranking NORTH 1 Saint Anselm NE10 0.00 0.85 1 2 0 2 Seton Hill GMAC 0.00 1.00 2 6 0 3 Mercyhurst GMAC 0.00 0.72 3 5 0 4 Le Moyne NE10 0.00 0.70 4 4 0 6 Mercy East Coast 0.00 0.72 5 4 1 9 NYIT East Coast 0.00 0.57 6 4 2 10 Wilmington (DE) CACC 0.00 0.34 7 5 0 11 Pace NE10 0.00 0.79 8 1 1 13 Saint Rose NE10 0.00 0.69 9 3 1 15 Franklin Pierce NE10 0.00 0.40 10 2 0 20 Assumption NE10 0.00 0.64 11 2 0 21 Chestnut Hill CACC 0.00 0.72 12 4 1 26 Georgian Court CACC 0.00 0.77 13 4 4 31 Roberts Wesleyan East Coast 0.00 0.42 14 3 3 34 Adelphi NE10 0.00 0.00 15 1 2 35 Alderson Broaddus GMAC 0.00 0.00 16 0 4 36 American Intl. NE10 0.00 0.00 17 2 4 38 Bentley NE10 0.00 0.00 18 0 2 39 Caldwell 0.00 0.19 19 1 1 42 Davis & Elkins GMAC 0.00 0.00 20 0 6 43 Dominican CACC 0.00 0.00 21 2 3 46 Felician CACC 0.00 0.00 22 1 5 48 Lake Erie GMAC 0.00 0.00 23 0 5 55 Molloy East Coast 0.00 0.00 24 1 5 60 Post CACC 0.00 0.00 25 0 6 62 Saint Michael's NE10 0.00 0.00 26 0 2 64 SNHU NE10 0.00 0.00 27 1 2 65 St. Thomas Aquinas East Coast 0.00 0.00 28 2 4 67 U. of DC East Coast 0.00 0.00 29 3 5 69 Walsh GMAC 0.00 0.00 30 1 3 SOUTH 5 Tampa Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.84 1 6 0 7 Lenoir-Rhyne South Atlant 0.00 0.96 2 5 1 8 Belmont Abbey Carolinas 0.00 0.96 3 6 0 12 Limestone Carolinas 0.00 0.59 4 4 1 14 Lindenwood GLVC 0.00 0.96 5 5 0 16 Queens South Atlant 0.00 0.85 6 5 2 17 Colorado Mesa RMAC 0.00 0.88 7 7 0 18 Wingate South Atlant 0.00 0.74 8 4 2 19 Rockhurst GLVC 0.00 0.94 9 5 1 22 Rollins Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.64 10 2 2 23 Indianapolis GLVC 0.00 0.39 11 2 2 24 Mount Olive Carolinas 0.00 0.68 12 4 2 25 Frostburg State East Coast 0.00 0.81 13 4 0 27 Lewis GLVC 0.00 0.60 14 3 2 28 Chowan Carolinas 0.00 0.37 15 5 3 29 Coker South Atlant 0.00 0.61 16 6 2 30 Florida Southern Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.61 17 3 3 32 Saint Leo Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.22 18 3 2 33 Adams State RMAC 0.00 0.00 19 0 4 37 Barton Carolinas 0.00 0.00 20 1 6 40 Catawba South Atlant 0.00 0.00 21 2 3 41 CSU Pueblo RMAC 0.00 0.00 22 1 2 44 Embry-Riddle Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.00 23 2 5 45 Emmanuel (GA) Carolinas 0.00 0.00 24 2 4 47 Florida Tech Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.00 25 2 4 49 Lander GLVC 0.00 0.32 26 4 2 50 Lees-McRae Carolinas 0.00 0.00 27 1 6 51 Lincoln Memorial South Atlant 0.00 0.00 28 2 4 52 Lynn Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.00 29 2 4 53 Mars Hill South Atlant 0.00 0.00 30 3 4 54 Maryville GLVC 0.00 0.00 31 2 4 56 Montevallo GLVC 0.00 0.00 32 3 4 57 Newberry South Atlant 0.00 0.61 33 3 3 58 North Greenville Carolinas 0.00 0.54 34 4 4 59 Palm Beach Atl. Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.00 35 2 3 61 Quincy GLVC 0.00 0.00 36 0 3 63 Shorter GLVC 0.00 0.00 37 1 7 66 Tusculum South Atlant 0.00 0.22 38 3 3 68 UAH GLVC 0.00 0.21 39 3 2 70 Westminster (UT) RMAC 0.00 0.00 40 3 4 71 Young Harris GLVC 0.00 0.45 41 3 3