PROBABILITIES

The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance). However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances. At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection. Algorithm
Rank Team Name Conference AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L Rating Ranking 1 Cornell Ivy 26.50 95.09 1 5 0 2 North Carolina ACC 0.00 98.27 2 6 0 3 Syracuse ACC 0.00 100.00 3 5 0 4 Georgetown Big East 27.80 83.82 4 6 0 5 Yale Ivy 19.60 82.95 5 3 1 6 Penn State Big Ten 27.40 61.85 6 4 2 7 Princeton Ivy 17.20 90.46 7 5 0 8 Ohio State Big Ten 20.80 93.64 8 4 2 9 Army Patriot 26.90 69.65 9 6 2 10 Providence Big East 22.50 68.79 10 5 1 11 Maryland Big Ten 18.30 81.79 11 5 1 12 Penn Ivy 11.10 68.79 12 2 3 13 Dartmouth Ivy 11.30 78.03 13 3 1 14 Duke ACC 0.00 53.76 14 5 2 15 Virginia ACC 0.00 69.94 15 4 2 16 Notre Dame ACC 0.00 91.62 16 2 2 17 Villanova Big East 16.60 85.84 17 4 3 18 Denver Big East 14.50 82.95 18 4 2 19 Albany America East 18.60 68.21 19 2 3 20 UMass CAA 30.20 49.71 20 4 2 21 Bucknell Patriot 17.00 63.01 21 5 1 22 Lehigh Patriot 21.00 45.95 22 5 1 23 Harvard Ivy 7.20 66.47 23 2 2 24 Richmond SoCon 28.70 78.90 24 4 3 25 UMBC America East 17.00 43.64 25 4 1 26 Drexel CAA 24.40 37.28 26 3 3 27 Hobart Northeast 20.20 46.53 27 4 1 28 Loyola Patriot 12.80 67.05 28 4 2 29 Vermont America East 27.50 30.64 29 3 1 30 Bryant Northeast 14.20 54.62 30 3 3 31 Brown Ivy 7.10 88.15 31 3 2 32 Delaware CAA 16.70 37.57 32 4 2 33 Air Force SoCon 14.50 40.75 33 4 3 34 Canisius MAAC 5.70 0.00 34 0 5 35 Fairfield CAA 9.20 68.50 35 4 2 36 St. John's Big East 8.10 65.03 36 3 3 37 Mercer SoCon 18.60 58.38 37 5 1 38 Rutgers Big Ten 14.80 76.01 38 2 4 39 Saint Joseph's Northeast 15.30 48.55 39 5 2 40 Stony Brook America East 14.50 82.37 40 5 2 41 UMass Lowell America East 8.00 23.12 41 3 4 42 Boston U. Patriot 9.80 22.83 42 3 3 43 Detroit Mercy MAAC 12.40 29.19 43 2 3 44 Holy Cross Patriot 2.20 54.05 44 4 3 45 Manhattan MAAC 19.90 26.59 45 3 3 46 Marist MAAC 24.30 17.63 46 3 3 47 Marquette Big East 10.50 51.45 47 3 3 48 Robert Morris Northeast 9.80 20.52 48 4 2 49 Binghamton America East 5.70 0.00 49 1 5 50 High Point SoCon 9.00 0.00 50 2 6 51 Hofstra CAA 13.70 82.08 51 3 3 52 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 10.00 62.43 52 1 4 53 LIU Northeast 4.70 0.00 53 1 5 54 Michigan Big Ten 8.70 72.83 54 3 3 55 Quinnipiac MAAC 15.50 0.00 55 0 6 56 Sacred Heart Northeast 7.70 0.00 56 1 5 57 Siena MAAC 10.80 7.80 57 2 3 58 Wagner Northeast 6.70 0.00 58 1 5 59 Bellarmine SoCon 6.00 0.00 59 2 6 60 Cleveland State Independent 0.00 0.00 60 2 5 61 Colgate Patriot 2.40 0.00 61 0 6 62 Furman SoCon 5.60 0.00 62 1 5 63 Hampton Independent 0.00 0.00 63 0 5 64 Hartford America East 8.70 28.32 64 3 3 65 Jacksonville SoCon 12.30 20.23 65 3 2 66 Lafayette Patriot 1.20 0.00 66 0 6 67 Merrimack Northeast 9.50 0.00 67 1 5 68 Monmouth MAAC 7.00 0.00 68 2 4 69 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 6.70 7.23 69 3 4 70 Navy Patriot 6.70 51.45 70 3 2 71 NJIT Northeast 5.20 0.00 71 1 6 72 St. Bonaventure MAAC 4.40 0.00 72 0 6 73 Towson CAA 5.80 0.00 73 0 6 74 Utah Independent 0.00 2.89 74 3 3 75 VMI SoCon 5.30 0.00 75 0 4