Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 Complete List of At-Large predictions below.
 The past four years predictions were 34 out of 36 or 94%.
 
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Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division II Championship Tournament

The Division II Men s Lacrosse Championship consists of an twelve-team, single-elimination tournament. Pairings are determined by regional alignments (North and South), with six teams being selected from each region. Teams must have a .500 or better record versus Division II opponents to be considered. There is no automatic qualification for the tournament. The prediction is based on the rankings of total record, in/region record, overall rpi, sos overall, sos in-region and record against teams with a winning record. See NCAA for more info. Primary Factors for Selecting Teams [1] Division II in region Won-loss record [2] Division II winning percentage [3] Division II strength of schedule [-] Division II head-to-head competition [-] Division II Common opponents Secondary Factors for Selecting Teams [4] Division II results vs teams with a winning record [5] In-region strength of schedule [6] In-region Ratings Percentage Index Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?

Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Algorithm
NORTH RNK TEAMNAME TOURN SEL RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK REG TOTAL PROB W-L W-L RPI W-L SOS SOS W L T' W L T TOT REG TOT >.5 TOT REG [2] [1] [6] [4] [3] [5] 1 Seton Hill 98.30 3 1 4 3 9 16 8 2 0 6 0 0 2 Le Moyne 77.70 22 11 24 11 38 9 8 6 0 4 0 0 3 Saint Anselm 71.80 8 4 6 6 30 17 8 3 0 2 0 0 4 Mercyhurst 62.90 14 10 16 6 47 5 6 4 0 5 0 0 5 NYIT 51.00 44 18 32 51 20 1 7 9 0 4 2 0 6 Wilmington (DE) 42.00 38 22 62 14 67 29 4 7 0 5 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Pace 41.70 12 5 10 22 35 2 10 4 0 1 1 0 8 Saint Rose 39.90 16 8 18 29 41 11 8 4 0 3 1 0 9 Mercy 38.40 8 1 13 22 51 19 12 3 0 4 1 0 10 Franklin Pierce 29.80 48 20 48 35 49 10 5 8 0 2 0 0 11 Assumption 18.20 14 7 17 51 42 20 9 4 0 2 0 0 12 Chestnut Hill 13.50 6 3 11 9 53 28 11 3 0 4 1 0 13 Georgian Court 8.60 17 8 15 14 33 6 10 5 0 4 4 0 14 Roberts Wesleyan 5.50 33 13 40 51 57 23 8 7 0 3 3 0 15 Caldwell 0.70 48 20 65 66 69 27 5 8 0 1 1 0 16 Adelphi 0.00 38 14 28 64 19 8 6 6 0 1 2 0 17 Alderson Broaddus 0.00 67 28 64 51 9 18 2 6 0 0 4 0 18 American Intl. 0.00 45 19 53 35 59 15 6 9 0 2 4 0 19 Bentley 0.00 66 28 50 61 31 4 3 9 0 0 2 0 20 Davis & Elkins 0.00 45 16 51 61 58 25 4 5 0 0 6 0 21 Dominican 0.00 55 23 57 61 54 13 5 10 0 2 3 0 22 Felician 0.00 63 28 67 66 65 21 3 9 0 1 5 0 23 Lake Erie 0.00 51 16 45 42 9 12 4 5 0 0 5 0 24 Molloy 0.00 65 23 43 34 23 3 4 8 0 1 5 0 25 Post 0.00 63 26 63 51 60 22 4 9 0 0 6 0 26 Saint Michael's 0.00 55 23 54 35 50 14 5 10 0 0 2 0 27 SNHU 0.00 24 12 34 8 43 7 7 6 0 1 2 0 28 St. Thomas Aquinas 0.00 27 15 42 24 52 24 6 7 0 2 4 0 29 U. of DC 0.00 55 26 61 51 64 26 4 9 0 3 5 0 30 Walsh 0.00 43 5 46 24 2 30 5 2 0 1 3 0 SOUTH RNK TEAMNAME TOURN SEL RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK REG TOTAL PROB W-L W-L RPI W-L SOS SOS W L T W L T TOT REG TOT >.5 TOT REG [2] [1] [6] [4] [3] [5] 1 Colorado Mesa 95.40 7 6 20 14 8 36 9 3 0 7 0 0 2 Belmont Abbey 87.70 1 1 1 1 27 2 15 0 0 6 0 0 3 Tampa 80.30 8 7 8 2 32 10 10 4 0 6 0 0 4 Lenoir-Rhyne 67.60 3 4 2 4 16 12 11 2 0 5 1 0 5 Limestone 41.20 27 12 30 35 39 19 8 6 0 4 1 0 6 Lindenwood 30.60 2 3 3 4 17 13 11 1 0 5 0 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Rockhurst 30.10 3 5 5 9 13 17 9 2 0 5 1 0 8 Wingate 28.30 18 9 12 18 26 32 9 5 0 4 2 0 9 Queens 26.30 13 8 7 13 22 4 11 5 0 5 2 0 10 Indianapolis 22.70 67 37 41 47 14 3 2 8 0 2 2 0 11 Mount Olive 19.20 27 12 21 19 24 31 8 6 0 4 2 0 12 Rollins 13.40 24 19 19 51 25 5 6 6 0 2 2 0 13 Chowan 11.90 55 41 68 66 1 35 1 9 0 5 3 0 14 Frostburg State 9.40 11 1 9 11 36 14 1 0 0 4 0 0 15 Lewis 9.30 22 34 37 66 7 18 2 5 0 3 2 0 16 Florida Southern 9.00 36 19 22 47 18 15 6 6 0 3 3 0 17 Saint Leo 7.20 55 35 52 51 46 34 3 8 0 3 2 0 18 UAH 7.10 48 26 69 29 70 37 4 6 0 3 2 0 19 North Greenville 1.70 32 18 35 29 44 8 9 8 0 4 4 0 20 Coker 1.60 18 11 27 27 48 20 9 6 0 6 2 0 21 Adams State 0.00 71 40 66 42 12 41 1 5 0 0 4 0 22 Barton 0.00 70 38 70 51 62 30 2 9 0 1 6 0 23 Catawba 0.00 38 22 23 41 15 23 6 7 0 2 3 0 24 CSU Pueblo 0.00 37 26 36 35 4 7 4 6 0 1 2 0 25 Embry-Riddle 0.00 55 36 49 64 6 16 3 10 0 2 5 0 26 Emmanuel (GA) 0.00 51 28 55 44 55 27 5 9 0 2 4 0 27 Florida Tech 0.00 18 9 14 19 28 11 9 5 0 2 4 0 28 Lander 0.00 33 23 56 24 68 39 5 6 0 4 2 0 29 Lees-McRae 0.00 38 24 47 44 56 24 6 8 0 1 6 0 30 Lincoln Memorial 0.00 45 28 39 44 3 22 5 9 0 2 4 0 31 Lynn 0.00 38 24 29 29 21 1 6 8 0 2 4 0 32 Mars Hill 0.00 27 16 25 19 34 9 8 7 0 3 4 0 33 Maryville 0.00 51 28 38 66 29 6 5 9 0 2 4 0 34 Montevallo 0.00 27 16 44 14 66 33 8 7 0 3 4 0 35 Newberry 0.00 18 12 26 27 45 28 8 6 0 3 3 0 36 Palm Beach Atl. 0.00 51 28 60 51 63 26 5 9 0 2 3 0 37 Quincy 0.00 55 32 58 47 4 38 3 6 0 0 3 0 38 Shorter 0.00 69 38 71 47 71 40 2 9 0 1 7 0 39 Tusculum 0.00 55 32 59 35 61 21 5 10 0 3 3 0 40 Westminster (UT) 0.00 24 15 31 29 40 25 7 6 0 3 4 0 41 Young Harris 0.00 33 19 33 66 37 29 3 3 0 3 3 0