Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last 7 years at-large accuracy: 53 out of 56 or 94%.
 
 

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?

Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 Algorithm
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L [3] [4] [2] 1 North Carolina ACC 94.30 0.00 16 8 8 6 0 2 Cornell Ivy 91.70 26.50 2 1 15 5 0 3 Syracuse ACC 80.80 0.00 8 12 6 5 0 4 Georgetown Big East 75.50 27.80 17 7 28 6 0 5 Maryland Big Ten 65.40 18.30 7 5 7 5 1 6 Yale Ivy 63.80 19.60 1 4 21 3 1 7 Princeton Ivy 61.20 17.20 12 3 19 5 0 8 Penn State Big Ten 60.70 27.40 9 2 22 4 2 9 Providence Big East 57.90 22.50 4 11 20 5 1 10 Ohio State Big Ten 52.30 20.80 3 16 12 4 2 11 Dartmouth Ivy 50.10 11.30 23 20 10 3 1 12 Villanova Big East 48.20 16.60 10 18 17 4 3 13 Army Patriot 45.80 26.90 26 9 25 6 2 14 Penn Ivy 44.70 11.10 14 29 18 2 3 15 Notre Dame ACC 41.80 0.00 27 36 1 2 2 16 UMass CAA 40.70 30.20 5 13 34 4 2 17 Denver Big East 40.50 14.50 24 33 31 4 2 18 Virginia ACC 38.10 0.00 6 31 2 4 2 19 Albany America East 33.60 18.60 11 24 24 2 3 20 Duke ACC 30.20 0.00 25 27 32 5 2 21 Richmond SoCon 29.90 28.70 32 44 43 4 3 22 Vermont America East 29.90 27.50 33 23 54 3 1 23 Brown Ivy 28.40 7.10 29 19 9 3 2 24 Lehigh Patriot 26.80 21.00 19 10 55 5 1 25 Drexel CAA 26.50 24.40 34 37 45 3 3 26 Marist MAAC 24.30 24.30 31 50 59 3 3 27 Bucknell Patriot 23.30 17.00 21 6 48 5 1 28 Bryant Northeast 21.90 14.20 15 42 13 3 3 29 Harvard Ivy 21.10 7.20 20 21 16 2 2 30 Hobart Northeast 20.80 20.20 36 15 67 4 1 31 Manhattan MAAC 19.90 19.90 66 46 74 3 3 32 Loyola Patriot 19.40 12.80 43 28 42 4 2 33 Mercer SoCon 18.70 18.60 46 17 46 5 1 34 UMBC America East 18.30 17.00 28 22 73 4 1 35 Delaware CAA 17.80 16.70 30 26 58 4 2 36 Stony Brook America East 17.70 14.50 22 30 23 5 2 37 Saint Joseph's Northeast 16.80 15.30 18 14 68 5 2 38 Rutgers Big Ten 15.90 14.80 44 57 5 2 4 39 Quinnipiac MAAC 15.50 15.50 73 75 70 0 6 40 Air Force SoCon 14.50 14.50 48 41 47 4 3 41 Hofstra CAA 14.50 13.70 50 34 40 3 3 42 Marquette Big East 13.30 10.50 55 51 36 3 3 43 Fairfield CAA 12.80 9.20 38 32 41 4 2 44 Detroit Mercy MAAC 12.40 12.40 47 45 65 2 3 45 Jacksonville SoCon 12.40 12.30 54 40 60 3 2 46 Boston U. Patriot 11.20 9.80 42 25 39 3 3 47 Siena MAAC 10.80 10.80 65 54 69 2 3 48 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 10.00 10.00 35 53 4 1 4 49 Robert Morris Northeast 9.80 9.80 45 39 71 4 2 50 Merrimack Northeast 9.50 9.50 58 62 44 1 5 51 St. John's Big East 9.50 8.10 59 52 11 3 3 52 High Point SoCon 9.00 9.00 37 58 35 2 6 53 Michigan Big Ten 9.00 8.70 63 43 26 3 3 54 Hartford America East 8.70 8.70 64 49 64 3 3 55 Navy Patriot 8.10 6.70 40 38 38 3 2 56 UMass Lowell America East 8.10 8.00 57 47 52 3 4 57 Sacred Heart Northeast 7.70 7.70 39 60 33 1 5 58 Monmouth MAAC 7.00 7.00 52 55 63 2 4 59 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 6.70 6.70 49 56 57 3 4 60 Wagner Northeast 6.70 6.70 72 67 50 1 5 61 Bellarmine SoCon 6.00 6.00 71 72 61 2 6 62 Towson CAA 5.80 5.80 61 71 29 0 6 63 Binghamton America East 5.70 5.70 53 61 30 1 5 64 Canisius MAAC 5.70 5.70 69 68 62 0 5 65 Holy Cross Patriot 5.70 2.20 13 35 27 4 3 66 Furman SoCon 5.60 5.60 62 64 37 1 5 67 VMI SoCon 5.30 5.30 67 59 49 0 4 68 NJIT Northeast 5.20 5.20 70 73 72 1 6 69 LIU Northeast 4.70 4.70 74 66 56 1 5 70 St. Bonaventure MAAC 4.50 4.40 68 74 53 0 6 71 Colgate Patriot 2.40 2.40 41 65 3 0 6 72 Lafayette Patriot 1.30 1.20 56 70 14 0 6 73 Utah Independent 0.40 0.00 51 48 66 3 3 74 Cleveland State Independent 0.00 0.00 60 63 51 2 5 75 Hampton Independent 0.00 0.00 75 69 75 0 5